Recent FOMC projections and elevated inflation readings have shifted trader consensus toward modest federal funds rate increases by the end of 2026. The June Summary of Economic Projections raised the median end-2026 rate outlook to 3.8 percent amid upward revisions to PCE inflation, driven by energy supply shocks and Middle East developments, while the labor market remains resilient with unemployment near 4.3 percent. New Chair Kevin Warsh has emphasized price stability and launched internal reviews, with some officials signaling openness to hikes. This has aligned market pricing with outcomes clustered near 4.0 percent, reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing persistent above-target inflation against limited easing room before year-end. Upcoming September data and the next FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLãi suất của Fed sẽ là bao nhiêu vào cuối năm 2026?
Lãi suất của Fed sẽ là bao nhiêu vào cuối năm 2026?
4,0% 41.6%
3,75% 23.6%
4,25% 19.4%
3,5% 6.5%
$6,795,987 KL.
$6,795,987 KL.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1,0%
<1%
1,25
1%
1,5%
<1%
1,75%
<1%
2,0%
<1%
2,25%
<1%
2,5%
1%
2,75%
<1%
3,0%
<1%
3,25%
<1%
3,5%
7%
3,75%
24%
4,0%
42%
4,25%
19%
≥ 4,5%
5%
4,0% 41.6%
3,75% 23.6%
4,25% 19.4%
3,5% 6.5%
$6,795,987 KL.
$6,795,987 KL.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1,0%
$252,111 KL.
<1%
1,25
$149,943 KL.
1%
1,5%
$147,387 KL.
<1%
1,75%
$150,007 KL.
<1%
2,0%
$265,156 KL.
<1%
2,25%
$88,877 KL.
<1%
2,5%
$175,659 KL.
1%
2,75%
$62,291 KL.
<1%
3,0%
$489,647 KL.
<1%
3,25%
$67,053 KL.
<1%
3,5%
$203,467 KL.
7%
3,75%
$533,159 KL.
24%
4,0%
$1,370,913 KL.
42%
4,25%
$430,802 KL.
19%
≥ 4,5%
$2,409,514 KL.
5%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC projections and elevated inflation readings have shifted trader consensus toward modest federal funds rate increases by the end of 2026. The June Summary of Economic Projections raised the median end-2026 rate outlook to 3.8 percent amid upward revisions to PCE inflation, driven by energy supply shocks and Middle East developments, while the labor market remains resilient with unemployment near 4.3 percent. New Chair Kevin Warsh has emphasized price stability and launched internal reviews, with some officials signaling openness to hikes. This has aligned market pricing with outcomes clustered near 4.0 percent, reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing persistent above-target inflation against limited easing room before year-end. Upcoming September data and the next FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Thị trường mở: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$6,795,987Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC projections and elevated inflation readings have shifted trader consensus toward modest federal funds rate increases by the end of 2026. The June Summary of Economic Projections raised the median end-2026 rate outlook to 3.8 percent amid upward revisions to PCE inflation, driven by energy supply shocks and Middle East developments, while the labor market remains resilient with unemployment near 4.3 percent. New Chair Kevin Warsh has emphasized price stability and launched internal reviews, with some officials signaling openness to hikes. This has aligned market pricing with outcomes clustered near 4.0 percent, reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing persistent above-target inflation against limited easing room before year-end. Upcoming September data and the next FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Khối lượng
$6,795,987Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Recent FOMC projections and elevated inflation readings have shifted trader consensus toward modest federal funds rate increases by the end of 2026. The June Summary of Economic Projections raised the median end-2026 rate outlook to 3.8 percent amid upward revisions to PCE inflation, driven by energy supply shocks and Middle East developments, while the labor market remains resilient with unemployment near 4.3 percent. New Chair Kevin Warsh has emphasized price stability and launched internal reviews, with some officials signaling openness to hikes. This has aligned market pricing with outcomes clustered near 4.0 percent, reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing persistent above-target inflation against limited easing room before year-end. Upcoming September data and the next FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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