Both OpenAI and Anthropic report rapid progress toward recursive self-improvement, where large language models and AI agents autonomously handle research tasks, code optimization, and model iteration that previously required human researchers. Anthropic's internal metrics show Claude authoring over 80% of merged code and enabling 8x engineer productivity gains, while OpenAI announced reaching its "automated research intern" milestone in September 2026, with agents driving most research workflows and RSI listed as the top training priority. Recent executive statements from Dario Amodei and Jakub Pachocki highlight safety risks and calls for voluntary slowdowns, creating uncertainty around when a formal announcement of full autonomous successor-building might occur. Key upcoming catalysts include further benchmark results on internal RSI indices and potential alignment or regulatory developments.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỚI
Oct 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
11%
December 31, 2026
16%
$173 KL.
October 31, 2026
$116 KL.
11%
December 31, 2026
$56 KL.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Both OpenAI and Anthropic report rapid progress toward recursive self-improvement, where large language models and AI agents autonomously handle research tasks, code optimization, and model iteration that previously required human researchers. Anthropic's internal metrics show Claude authoring over 80% of merged code and enabling 8x engineer productivity gains, while OpenAI announced reaching its "automated research intern" milestone in September 2026, with agents driving most research workflows and RSI listed as the top training priority. Recent executive statements from Dario Amodei and Jakub Pachocki highlight safety risks and calls for voluntary slowdowns, creating uncertainty around when a formal announcement of full autonomous successor-building might occur. Key upcoming catalysts include further benchmark results on internal RSI indices and potential alignment or regulatory developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ET
Khối lượng
$173Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2028Thị trường mở
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Both OpenAI and Anthropic report rapid progress toward recursive self-improvement, where large language models and AI agents autonomously handle research tasks, code optimization, and model iteration that previously required human researchers. Anthropic's internal metrics show Claude authoring over 80% of merged code and enabling 8x engineer productivity gains, while OpenAI announced reaching its "automated research intern" milestone in September 2026, with agents driving most research workflows and RSI listed as the top training priority. Recent executive statements from Dario Amodei and Jakub Pachocki highlight safety risks and calls for voluntary slowdowns, creating uncertainty around when a formal announcement of full autonomous successor-building might occur. Key upcoming catalysts include further benchmark results on internal RSI indices and potential alignment or regulatory developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$173Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2028Thị trường mở
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Both OpenAI and Anthropic report rapid progress toward recursive self-improvement, where large language models and AI agents autonomously handle research tasks, code optimization, and model iteration that previously required human researchers. Anthropic's internal metrics show Claude authoring over 80% of merged code and enabling 8x engineer productivity gains, while OpenAI announced reaching its "automated research intern" milestone in September 2026, with agents driving most research workflows and RSI listed as the top training priority. Recent executive statements from Dario Amodei and Jakub Pachocki highlight safety risks and calls for voluntary slowdowns, creating uncertainty around when a formal announcement of full autonomous successor-building might occur. Key upcoming catalysts include further benchmark results on internal RSI indices and potential alignment or regulatory developments.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp