**Trader sentiment overwhelmingly favors a minimum temperature of 26°C in Tokyo on August 1, 2026, reflecting a strong market-implied probability of 98%.** This positioning aligns with current seasonal norms and short-term forecasts during peak summer, when Tokyo typically experiences nighttime lows around 24–26°C amid high humidity and urban heat retention. Official guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency shows early-August daily normals near 24°C, but recent model runs and surface observations indicate slightly elevated minima due to persistent warm air masses, light winds, and the urban heat island effect, which prevents rapid nighttime cooling. With the market resolving on verified daily minimum data from the primary Tokyo station, traders have converged on 26°C as the most probable outcome based on the latest forecast consensus. Realistic challenges to this consensus remain limited but could include an unexpected influx of cooler maritime air, a localized thunderstorm cluster, or a late revision in observational data. However, given the stability of current high-pressure patterns and the proximity to resolution, significant deviations below 25°C or above 27°C appear highly improbable under prevailing atmospheric conditions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?
26°C 98%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
23°C <1%
$16,388 KL.
$16,388 KL.
Aug 1, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
98%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 98%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
23°C <1%
$16,388 KL.
$16,388 KL.
Aug 1, 2026
22°C or below
$348 KL.
<1%
23°C
$478 KL.
<1%
24°C
$528 KL.
1%
25°C
$845 KL.
1%
26°C
$1,394 KL.
98%
27°C
$10,087 KL.
<1%
28°C
$1,181 KL.
<1%
29°C
$659 KL.
<1%
30°C
$372 KL.
<1%
31°C
$305 KL.
<1%
32°C or higher
$193 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment overwhelmingly favors a minimum temperature of 26°C in Tokyo on August 1, 2026, reflecting a strong market-implied probability of 98%.** This positioning aligns with current seasonal norms and short-term forecasts during peak summer, when Tokyo typically experiences nighttime lows around 24–26°C amid high humidity and urban heat retention.
Official guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency shows early-August daily normals near 24°C, but recent model runs and surface observations indicate slightly elevated minima due to persistent warm air masses, light winds, and the urban heat island effect, which prevents rapid nighttime cooling. With the market resolving on verified daily minimum data from the primary Tokyo station, traders have converged on 26°C as the most probable outcome based on the latest forecast consensus.
Realistic challenges to this consensus remain limited but could include an unexpected influx of cooler maritime air, a localized thunderstorm cluster, or a late revision in observational data. However, given the stability of current high-pressure patterns and the proximity to resolution, significant deviations below 25°C or above 27°C appear highly improbable under prevailing atmospheric conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$16,388Ngày kết thúc
Aug 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment overwhelmingly favors a minimum temperature of 26°C in Tokyo on August 1, 2026, reflecting a strong market-implied probability of 98%.** This positioning aligns with current seasonal norms and short-term forecasts during peak summer, when Tokyo typically experiences nighttime lows around 24–26°C amid high humidity and urban heat retention.
Official guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency shows early-August daily normals near 24°C, but recent model runs and surface observations indicate slightly elevated minima due to persistent warm air masses, light winds, and the urban heat island effect, which prevents rapid nighttime cooling. With the market resolving on verified daily minimum data from the primary Tokyo station, traders have converged on 26°C as the most probable outcome based on the latest forecast consensus.
Realistic challenges to this consensus remain limited but could include an unexpected influx of cooler maritime air, a localized thunderstorm cluster, or a late revision in observational data. However, given the stability of current high-pressure patterns and the proximity to resolution, significant deviations below 25°C or above 27°C appear highly improbable under prevailing atmospheric conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$16,388Ngày kết thúc
Aug 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment overwhelmingly favors a minimum temperature of 26°C in Tokyo on August 1, 2026, reflecting a strong market-implied probability of 98%.** This positioning aligns with current seasonal norms and short-term forecasts during peak summer, when Tokyo typically experiences nighttime lows around 24–26°C amid high humidity and urban heat retention. Official guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency shows early-August daily normals near 24°C, but recent model runs and surface observations indicate slightly elevated minima due to persistent warm air masses, light winds, and the urban heat island effect, which prevents rapid nighttime cooling. With the market resolving on verified daily minimum data from the primary Tokyo station, traders have converged on 26°C as the most probable outcome based on the latest forecast consensus. Realistic challenges to this consensus remain limited but could include an unexpected influx of cooler maritime air, a localized thunderstorm cluster, or a late revision in observational data. However, given the stability of current high-pressure patterns and the proximity to resolution, significant deviations below 25°C or above 27°C appear highly improbable under prevailing atmospheric conditions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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