Recent ensemble forecasts from European weather models point to a Madrid overnight low on September 6 most likely between 20–23 °C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities clustered at or below 21 °C. This range aligns with early-autumn climatology for the central Spanish plateau, where radiational cooling under high pressure typically produces minimums in this band after daytime peaks near 30 °C. Latest ECMWF and GFS runs show modest spread driven by boundary-layer moisture and light winds, with limited potential for either stronger nocturnal cooling or warmer advection. Traders will watch the next model cycle and AEMET guidance for any changes in cloud cover or wind that could shift the final recorded minimum.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Madrid on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 6?
21°C or below 48%
31°C or higher 47%
22°C 27%
23°C 22%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 6, 2026
21°C or below
48%
22°C
27%
23°C
22%
24°C
13%
25°C
15%
26°C
18%
27°C
15%
28°C
6%
29°C
6%
30°C
3%
31°C or higher
47%
21°C or below 48%
31°C or higher 47%
22°C 27%
23°C 22%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 6, 2026
21°C or below
$0 KL.
48%
22°C
$0 KL.
27%
23°C
$0 KL.
22%
24°C
$0 KL.
13%
25°C
$0 KL.
15%
26°C
$0 KL.
18%
27°C
$0 KL.
15%
28°C
$0 KL.
6%
29°C
$0 KL.
6%
30°C
$0 KL.
3%
31°C or higher
$0 KL.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European weather models point to a Madrid overnight low on September 6 most likely between 20–23 °C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities clustered at or below 21 °C. This range aligns with early-autumn climatology for the central Spanish plateau, where radiational cooling under high pressure typically produces minimums in this band after daytime peaks near 30 °C. Latest ECMWF and GFS runs show modest spread driven by boundary-layer moisture and light winds, with limited potential for either stronger nocturnal cooling or warmer advection. Traders will watch the next model cycle and AEMET guidance for any changes in cloud cover or wind that could shift the final recorded minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 6, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European weather models point to a Madrid overnight low on September 6 most likely between 20–23 °C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities clustered at or below 21 °C. This range aligns with early-autumn climatology for the central Spanish plateau, where radiational cooling under high pressure typically produces minimums in this band after daytime peaks near 30 °C. Latest ECMWF and GFS runs show modest spread driven by boundary-layer moisture and light winds, with limited potential for either stronger nocturnal cooling or warmer advection. Traders will watch the next model cycle and AEMET guidance for any changes in cloud cover or wind that could shift the final recorded minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 6, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from European weather models point to a Madrid overnight low on September 6 most likely between 20–23 °C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities clustered at or below 21 °C. This range aligns with early-autumn climatology for the central Spanish plateau, where radiational cooling under high pressure typically produces minimums in this band after daytime peaks near 30 °C. Latest ECMWF and GFS runs show modest spread driven by boundary-layer moisture and light winds, with limited potential for either stronger nocturnal cooling or warmer advection. Traders will watch the next model cycle and AEMET guidance for any changes in cloud cover or wind that could shift the final recorded minimum.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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