Recent Met Office and ensemble forecasts point to mild overnight conditions across southeast England on August 4–5, with minimum temperatures projected near 14–18 °C under lingering high pressure and above-average warmth that has characterized much of summer 2026. Persistent southerly flow and limited cloud cover have kept nighttime radiative cooling modest, pushing implied probabilities toward 18 °C or 19 °C as the most likely daily low in London. Traders weigh these model consensus runs against typical August climatology (average low around 13 °C) and note that any increase in wind or incoming fronts could drop readings toward 17 °C or below. Updated guidance expected from the Met Office and ECMWF over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the final distribution ahead of market resolution.