Recent satellite and model data show Tropical Storm Saudel undergoing rapid intensification in the Philippine Sea amid warm sea surface temperatures, high ocean heat content, and initially low wind shear, driving consensus toward a very strong typhoon peak. Official guidance from JMA projects maximum sustained winds near 90 knots with central pressure around 940 hPa by late August 23, while JTWC anticipates major typhoon strength exceeding 96 knots and potential Category 4 intensity. Traders assign 85.5% implied probability to very strong typhoon outcomes, reflecting observed structural improvements including hot tower activity and eyewall development, tempered by emerging shear and an anticipated eyewall replacement cycle that could limit further gains to violent typhoon levels. Updated forecasts and monitoring agency briefings remain key near-term catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
How strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
Very Strong Typhoon 86%
Violent Typhoon 14%
Typhoon 1.3%
Tropical Storm <1%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
<1%
Severe Tropical Storm
<1%
Typhoon
1%
Very Strong Typhoon
86%
Violent Typhoon
14%
Very Strong Typhoon 86%
Violent Typhoon 14%
Typhoon 1.3%
Tropical Storm <1%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
$663 KL.
<1%
Severe Tropical Storm
$606 KL.
<1%
Typhoon
$1,436 KL.
1%
Very Strong Typhoon
$1,496 KL.
86%
Violent Typhoon
$3,195 KL.
14%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent satellite and model data show Tropical Storm Saudel undergoing rapid intensification in the Philippine Sea amid warm sea surface temperatures, high ocean heat content, and initially low wind shear, driving consensus toward a very strong typhoon peak. Official guidance from JMA projects maximum sustained winds near 90 knots with central pressure around 940 hPa by late August 23, while JTWC anticipates major typhoon strength exceeding 96 knots and potential Category 4 intensity. Traders assign 85.5% implied probability to very strong typhoon outcomes, reflecting observed structural improvements including hot tower activity and eyewall development, tempered by emerging shear and an anticipated eyewall replacement cycle that could limit further gains to violent typhoon levels. Updated forecasts and monitoring agency briefings remain key near-term catalysts.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Khối lượng
$7,396Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent satellite and model data show Tropical Storm Saudel undergoing rapid intensification in the Philippine Sea amid warm sea surface temperatures, high ocean heat content, and initially low wind shear, driving consensus toward a very strong typhoon peak. Official guidance from JMA projects maximum sustained winds near 90 knots with central pressure around 940 hPa by late August 23, while JTWC anticipates major typhoon strength exceeding 96 knots and potential Category 4 intensity. Traders assign 85.5% implied probability to very strong typhoon outcomes, reflecting observed structural improvements including hot tower activity and eyewall development, tempered by emerging shear and an anticipated eyewall replacement cycle that could limit further gains to violent typhoon levels. Updated forecasts and monitoring agency briefings remain key near-term catalysts.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Khối lượng
$7,396Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent satellite and model data show Tropical Storm Saudel undergoing rapid intensification in the Philippine Sea amid warm sea surface temperatures, high ocean heat content, and initially low wind shear, driving consensus toward a very strong typhoon peak. Official guidance from JMA projects maximum sustained winds near 90 knots with central pressure around 940 hPa by late August 23, while JTWC anticipates major typhoon strength exceeding 96 knots and potential Category 4 intensity. Traders assign 85.5% implied probability to very strong typhoon outcomes, reflecting observed structural improvements including hot tower activity and eyewall development, tempered by emerging shear and an anticipated eyewall replacement cycle that could limit further gains to violent typhoon levels. Updated forecasts and monitoring agency briefings remain key near-term catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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