Recent forecast model runs from agencies including the Met Office indicate a maximum temperature in Buenos Aires of 13–14°C on August 14, driven by a cooler-than-average air mass and increased cloud cover during Southern Hemisphere winter. This aligns with observed trends showing daily highs near or slightly below the 15–17°C seasonal norm, with limited diurnal warming expected under stable high-pressure influence. Trader consensus reflected in the near-even 43.5% implied probabilities for 13°C and 14°C captures residual uncertainty in exact peak timing and local microclimate effects, while the lower 13.5% on 15°C accounts for any late-day clearing. Updated observations and model ensembles later today will likely narrow resolution criteria based on official station readings.