Anthropic’s late-August and early-September releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 have driven the 79.5% market-implied odds, as these models now lead independent leaderboards including BenchAlign v5 and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on coding, agentic workflows, and reasoning benchmarks. Their strong SWE-bench and terminal-bench results, combined with 1M+ context windows, have widened the gap over competitors. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 narrowed the deficit on some agentic evals but still trails the top Claude variants, supporting its lower 17.4% odds. With only weeks remaining before end-of-September resolution, traders see limited scope for other labs to overtake the current frontier without major new demonstrations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
Anthropic 80%
OpenAI 17.3%
Meta 2.1%
Google 1.7%
$90,348 Обс.
$90,348 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
80%
OpenAI
17%
Meta
2%
2%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 80%
OpenAI 17.3%
Meta 2.1%
Google 1.7%
$90,348 Обс.
$90,348 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$39,822 Обс.
80%
OpenAI
$9,794 Обс.
17%
Meta
$7,941 Обс.
2%
$5,758 Обс.
2%
Alibaba
$3,847 Обс.
<1%
Moonshot
$3,212 Обс.
<1%
Z.ai
$2,870 Обс.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$2,852 Обс.
<1%
Baidu
$769 Обс.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,250 Обс.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,431 Обс.
<1%
ByteDance
$436 Обс.
<1%
MiniMax
$436 Обс.
<1%
Thinky
$1,313 Обс.
<1%
Meituan
$930 Обс.
<1%
Mistral
$1,554 Обс.
<1%
Amazon
$436 Обс.
<1%
Nvidia
$920 Обс.
<1%
Tencent
$2,658 Обс.
<1%
StepFun
$1,360 Обс.
<1%
Microsoft
$762 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s late-August and early-September releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 have driven the 79.5% market-implied odds, as these models now lead independent leaderboards including BenchAlign v5 and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on coding, agentic workflows, and reasoning benchmarks. Their strong SWE-bench and terminal-bench results, combined with 1M+ context windows, have widened the gap over competitors. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 narrowed the deficit on some agentic evals but still trails the top Claude variants, supporting its lower 17.4% odds. With only weeks remaining before end-of-September resolution, traders see limited scope for other labs to overtake the current frontier without major new demonstrations.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Обсяг
$90,348Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s late-August and early-September releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 have driven the 79.5% market-implied odds, as these models now lead independent leaderboards including BenchAlign v5 and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on coding, agentic workflows, and reasoning benchmarks. Their strong SWE-bench and terminal-bench results, combined with 1M+ context windows, have widened the gap over competitors. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 narrowed the deficit on some agentic evals but still trails the top Claude variants, supporting its lower 17.4% odds. With only weeks remaining before end-of-September resolution, traders see limited scope for other labs to overtake the current frontier without major new demonstrations.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$90,348Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s late-August and early-September releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 have driven the 79.5% market-implied odds, as these models now lead independent leaderboards including BenchAlign v5 and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on coding, agentic workflows, and reasoning benchmarks. Their strong SWE-bench and terminal-bench results, combined with 1M+ context windows, have widened the gap over competitors. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 narrowed the deficit on some agentic evals but still trails the top Claude variants, supporting its lower 17.4% odds. With only weeks remaining before end-of-September resolution, traders see limited scope for other labs to overtake the current frontier without major new demonstrations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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