NOAA’s updated August outlook maintains a 75% probability of below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity, citing a developing El Niño that increases wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation. As of mid-August, only three named storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—have developed, all remaining below hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with accumulated cyclone energy at just 3% of the seasonal median. Landfall locations along the U.S. Gulf or East Coast ultimately hinge on short-term steering currents and the subtropical ridge rather than basin totals; the National Hurricane Center issues 7-day formation outlooks and track forecasts that traders monitor for shifts. Peak months of August–September remain ahead, with any new model runs or rapid intensification events capable of altering implied probabilities for specific coastal regions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
НОВЕ
Dec 7, 2026
Texas
16%
Louisiana
13%
Mississippi
9%
Alabama
7%
Florida
25%
Georgia
5%
South Carolina
10%
North Carolina
14%
Virginia
5%
Maryland
2%
Delaware
3%
New Jersey
4%
New York
3%
Connecticut
4%
Rhode Island
4%
Massachusetts
3%
New Hampshire
3%
Maine
2%
Hawaii
9%
$9,525 Обс.
Texas
$88 Обс.
16%
Louisiana
$203 Обс.
13%
Mississippi
$281 Обс.
9%
Alabama
$683 Обс.
7%
Florida
$224 Обс.
25%
Georgia
$1,333 Обс.
5%
South Carolina
$182 Обс.
10%
North Carolina
$40 Обс.
14%
Virginia
$458 Обс.
5%
Maryland
$952 Обс.
2%
Delaware
$411 Обс.
3%
New Jersey
$21 Обс.
4%
New York
$770 Обс.
3%
Connecticut
$430 Обс.
4%
Rhode Island
$274 Обс.
4%
Massachusetts
$1,072 Обс.
3%
New Hampshire
$817 Обс.
3%
Maine
$1,285 Обс.
2%
Hawaii
$0 Обс.
9%
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.NOAA’s updated August outlook maintains a 75% probability of below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity, citing a developing El Niño that increases wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation. As of mid-August, only three named storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—have developed, all remaining below hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with accumulated cyclone energy at just 3% of the seasonal median. Landfall locations along the U.S. Gulf or East Coast ultimately hinge on short-term steering currents and the subtropical ridge rather than basin totals; the National Hurricane Center issues 7-day formation outlooks and track forecasts that traders monitor for shifts. Peak months of August–September remain ahead, with any new model runs or rapid intensification events capable of altering implied probabilities for specific coastal regions.
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ET
Обсяг
$9,525Дата завершення
Dec 8, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.NOAA’s updated August outlook maintains a 75% probability of below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity, citing a developing El Niño that increases wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation. As of mid-August, only three named storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—have developed, all remaining below hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with accumulated cyclone energy at just 3% of the seasonal median. Landfall locations along the U.S. Gulf or East Coast ultimately hinge on short-term steering currents and the subtropical ridge rather than basin totals; the National Hurricane Center issues 7-day formation outlooks and track forecasts that traders monitor for shifts. Peak months of August–September remain ahead, with any new model runs or rapid intensification events capable of altering implied probabilities for specific coastal regions.
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
Обсяг
$9,525Дата завершення
Dec 8, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s updated August outlook maintains a 75% probability of below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity, citing a developing El Niño that increases wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation. As of mid-August, only three named storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—have developed, all remaining below hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with accumulated cyclone energy at just 3% of the seasonal median. Landfall locations along the U.S. Gulf or East Coast ultimately hinge on short-term steering currents and the subtropical ridge rather than basin totals; the National Hurricane Center issues 7-day formation outlooks and track forecasts that traders monitor for shifts. Peak months of August–September remain ahead, with any new model runs or rapid intensification events capable of altering implied probabilities for specific coastal regions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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