**Traders assign a 91.5% probability to “No” on Turkey moving on a new constitution in 2026, reflecting the ruling AKP-MHP bloc’s 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament—well short of the 360 needed to call a referendum or 400 for direct passage.** Official statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş in June and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek more recently have reiterated the need to replace the 1982 charter, while an AKP commission continues internal drafting work. However, recent legislative focus has centered on PKK disarmament legislation passed in August with cross-party support, rather than constitutional reform. Opposition parties remain divided or constrained, and no parliamentary vote, public consultation, or referendum timeline has advanced in the final months of the year. These structural and timing constraints underpin the current trader consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено9% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
9% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 91.5% probability to “No” on Turkey moving on a new constitution in 2026, reflecting the ruling AKP-MHP bloc’s 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament—well short of the 360 needed to call a referendum or 400 for direct passage.** Official statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş in June and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek more recently have reiterated the need to replace the 1982 charter, while an AKP commission continues internal drafting work. However, recent legislative focus has centered on PKK disarmament legislation passed in August with cross-party support, rather than constitutional reform. Opposition parties remain divided or constrained, and no parliamentary vote, public consultation, or referendum timeline has advanced in the final months of the year. These structural and timing constraints underpin the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Обсяг
$7,475Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 91.5% probability to “No” on Turkey moving on a new constitution in 2026, reflecting the ruling AKP-MHP bloc’s 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament—well short of the 360 needed to call a referendum or 400 for direct passage.** Official statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş in June and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek more recently have reiterated the need to replace the 1982 charter, while an AKP commission continues internal drafting work. However, recent legislative focus has centered on PKK disarmament legislation passed in August with cross-party support, rather than constitutional reform. Opposition parties remain divided or constrained, and no parliamentary vote, public consultation, or referendum timeline has advanced in the final months of the year. These structural and timing constraints underpin the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$7,475Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 91.5% probability to “No” on Turkey moving on a new constitution in 2026, reflecting the ruling AKP-MHP bloc’s 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament—well short of the 360 needed to call a referendum or 400 for direct passage.** Official statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş in June and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek more recently have reiterated the need to replace the 1982 charter, while an AKP commission continues internal drafting work. However, recent legislative focus has centered on PKK disarmament legislation passed in August with cross-party support, rather than constitutional reform. Opposition parties remain divided or constrained, and no parliamentary vote, public consultation, or referendum timeline has advanced in the final months of the year. These structural and timing constraints underpin the current trader consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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