A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5 °C in late August 2026 and models projecting a very strong or historic peak by October–December, is the dominant factor elevating September 2026 temperatures. This builds on 2026’s year-to-date ranking among the three warmest periods on record and ongoing long-term anthropogenic warming, positioning the month for top-tier status behind only the 2023–2024 El Niño-driven peaks. Official forecasts from NOAA and multi-model ensembles show high confidence in above-normal global temperatures through boreal fall, though exact monthly ranking retains some uncertainty from model spread and the precise timing of peak ocean-atmosphere heat release. These conditions align with the market’s elevated implied probabilities for second- or first-hottest outcomes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 82%
1st hottest 36%
4th or lower 30%
3rd hottest 29%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
36%
2nd hottest
57%
3rd hottest
29%
4th or lower
30%
2nd hottest 82%
1st hottest 36%
4th or lower 30%
3rd hottest 29%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
$273 Обс.
36%
2nd hottest
$1 Обс.
57%
3rd hottest
$0 Обс.
29%
4th or lower
$250 Обс.
30%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5 °C in late August 2026 and models projecting a very strong or historic peak by October–December, is the dominant factor elevating September 2026 temperatures. This builds on 2026’s year-to-date ranking among the three warmest periods on record and ongoing long-term anthropogenic warming, positioning the month for top-tier status behind only the 2023–2024 El Niño-driven peaks. Official forecasts from NOAA and multi-model ensembles show high confidence in above-normal global temperatures through boreal fall, though exact monthly ranking retains some uncertainty from model spread and the precise timing of peak ocean-atmosphere heat release. These conditions align with the market’s elevated implied probabilities for second- or first-hottest outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Обсяг
$525Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5 °C in late August 2026 and models projecting a very strong or historic peak by October–December, is the dominant factor elevating September 2026 temperatures. This builds on 2026’s year-to-date ranking among the three warmest periods on record and ongoing long-term anthropogenic warming, positioning the month for top-tier status behind only the 2023–2024 El Niño-driven peaks. Official forecasts from NOAA and multi-model ensembles show high confidence in above-normal global temperatures through boreal fall, though exact monthly ranking retains some uncertainty from model spread and the precise timing of peak ocean-atmosphere heat release. These conditions align with the market’s elevated implied probabilities for second- or first-hottest outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Обсяг
$525Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5 °C in late August 2026 and models projecting a very strong or historic peak by October–December, is the dominant factor elevating September 2026 temperatures. This builds on 2026’s year-to-date ranking among the three warmest periods on record and ongoing long-term anthropogenic warming, positioning the month for top-tier status behind only the 2023–2024 El Niño-driven peaks. Official forecasts from NOAA and multi-model ensembles show high confidence in above-normal global temperatures through boreal fall, though exact monthly ranking retains some uncertainty from model spread and the precise timing of peak ocean-atmosphere heat release. These conditions align with the market’s elevated implied probabilities for second- or first-hottest outcomes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання