**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election consistently places the CDU at or below 10%, supporting trader emphasis on the “Under” outcome at 61.5%.** The most recent surveys show the CDU at 9–10%: Infratest dimap (early July) recorded 9%, while INSA (early-to-mid August) showed 10%. Aggregated trends place the party around 9.8%. This reflects a multi-year decline from 13.3% in 2021, with the CDU squeezed in a polarized contest where the AfD leads at ~36% and the SPD holds ~29%. The party trails the Linke (11–12%) in several readings and faces structural headwinds as voters consolidate behind the leading blocs. With the election less than a month away and no major recent catalysts shifting momentum toward the CDU, polling stability has anchored the implied probability that the party will finish under the 10% threshold.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%?
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%?
Over
39% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
Over
39% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election consistently places the CDU at or below 10%, supporting trader emphasis on the “Under” outcome at 61.5%.**
The most recent surveys show the CDU at 9–10%: Infratest dimap (early July) recorded 9%, while INSA (early-to-mid August) showed 10%. Aggregated trends place the party around 9.8%. This reflects a multi-year decline from 13.3% in 2021, with the CDU squeezed in a polarized contest where the AfD leads at ~36% and the SPD holds ~29%.
The party trails the Linke (11–12%) in several readings and faces structural headwinds as voters consolidate behind the leading blocs. With the election less than a month away and no major recent catalysts shifting momentum toward the CDU, polling stability has anchored the implied probability that the party will finish under the 10% threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Обсяг
$5,114Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election consistently places the CDU at or below 10%, supporting trader emphasis on the “Under” outcome at 61.5%.**
The most recent surveys show the CDU at 9–10%: Infratest dimap (early July) recorded 9%, while INSA (early-to-mid August) showed 10%. Aggregated trends place the party around 9.8%. This reflects a multi-year decline from 13.3% in 2021, with the CDU squeezed in a polarized contest where the AfD leads at ~36% and the SPD holds ~29%.
The party trails the Linke (11–12%) in several readings and faces structural headwinds as voters consolidate behind the leading blocs. With the election less than a month away and no major recent catalysts shifting momentum toward the CDU, polling stability has anchored the implied probability that the party will finish under the 10% threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Обсяг
$5,114Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election consistently places the CDU at or below 10%, supporting trader emphasis on the “Under” outcome at 61.5%.** The most recent surveys show the CDU at 9–10%: Infratest dimap (early July) recorded 9%, while INSA (early-to-mid August) showed 10%. Aggregated trends place the party around 9.8%. This reflects a multi-year decline from 13.3% in 2021, with the CDU squeezed in a polarized contest where the AfD leads at ~36% and the SPD holds ~29%. The party trails the Linke (11–12%) in several readings and faces structural headwinds as voters consolidate behind the leading blocs. With the election less than a month away and no major recent catalysts shifting momentum toward the CDU, polling stability has anchored the implied probability that the party will finish under the 10% threshold.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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