Recent polls for the September 6, 2026, Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election show the AfD holding steady at 41–43 percent, well ahead of the CDU near 23 percent, with roughly 13–20 percent undecided. This stability, consistent since spring, keeps the implied probability concentrated in the 39–45 percent bands as traders weigh turnout among core supporters, late shifts among undecided voters, and whether smaller parties clear the 5 percent threshold to enter parliament. The AfD’s lead stems from sustained regional discontent in eastern Germany on migration, economic conditions, and energy policy, while the CDU remains the main alternative without recent polling momentum. A surge in AfD turnout or further erosion of minor parties could push results toward or above 45 percent; conversely, stronger mobilization against the party or higher undecided resolution for the CDU could anchor outcomes nearer 39 percent.