**Recent polls for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election show a tight four-way contest among the Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne, with support clustered between roughly 16% and 22%.** This narrow spread among the top contenders creates substantial uncertainty over exact finishing positions, particularly for fourth place. The Linke have led several late-August surveys (e.g., Forsa at 22%), followed closely by the CDU and AfD (both around 18% in the same poll), with the Grüne at 16%. Earlier summer polling showed similar volatility, including brief AfD leads and shifts tied to the CDU’s candidate change from Kai Wegner to Stefan Evers after criticism of the incumbent’s handling of a major power outage. Trader probabilities reflect this competitive dynamic and the limited room for any single party to pull decisively ahead in the final weeks. Factors that could create separation include late campaign momentum for any of the four leading parties, differential turnout among their respective bases, or events that alter perceptions of the CDU-SPD governing coalition’s performance. Smaller parties such as the SPD, FDP, and BSW remain well below the threshold needed to influence the top-four ordering.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоGrüne 45%
Linke 16%
AfD 14%
CDU 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
Grüne
45%
Linke
16%
AfD
14%
CDU
11%
SPD
7%
FDP
5%
BSW
4%
FW
3%
Grüne 45%
Linke 16%
AfD 14%
CDU 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
Grüne
$2,724 Обс.
45%
Linke
$183 Обс.
16%
AfD
$36 Обс.
14%
CDU
$56 Обс.
11%
SPD
$36 Обс.
7%
FDP
$99 Обс.
5%
BSW
$51 Обс.
4%
FW
$84 Обс.
3%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
**Recent polls for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election show a tight four-way contest among the Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne, with support clustered between roughly 16% and 22%.** This narrow spread among the top contenders creates substantial uncertainty over exact finishing positions, particularly for fourth place. The Linke have led several late-August surveys (e.g., Forsa at 22%), followed closely by the CDU and AfD (both around 18% in the same poll), with the Grüne at 16%. Earlier summer polling showed similar volatility, including brief AfD leads and shifts tied to the CDU’s candidate change from Kai Wegner to Stefan Evers after criticism of the incumbent’s handling of a major power outage.
Trader probabilities reflect this competitive dynamic and the limited room for any single party to pull decisively ahead in the final weeks. Factors that could create separation include late campaign momentum for any of the four leading parties, differential turnout among their respective bases, or events that alter perceptions of the CDU-SPD governing coalition’s performance. Smaller parties such as the SPD, FDP, and BSW remain well below the threshold needed to influence the top-four ordering.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Ринок відкрито: Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,267Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
**Recent polls for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election show a tight four-way contest among the Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne, with support clustered between roughly 16% and 22%.** This narrow spread among the top contenders creates substantial uncertainty over exact finishing positions, particularly for fourth place. The Linke have led several late-August surveys (e.g., Forsa at 22%), followed closely by the CDU and AfD (both around 18% in the same poll), with the Grüne at 16%. Earlier summer polling showed similar volatility, including brief AfD leads and shifts tied to the CDU’s candidate change from Kai Wegner to Stefan Evers after criticism of the incumbent’s handling of a major power outage.
Trader probabilities reflect this competitive dynamic and the limited room for any single party to pull decisively ahead in the final weeks. Factors that could create separation include late campaign momentum for any of the four leading parties, differential turnout among their respective bases, or events that alter perceptions of the CDU-SPD governing coalition’s performance. Smaller parties such as the SPD, FDP, and BSW remain well below the threshold needed to influence the top-four ordering.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Обсяг
$3,267Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polls for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election show a tight four-way contest among the Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne, with support clustered between roughly 16% and 22%.** This narrow spread among the top contenders creates substantial uncertainty over exact finishing positions, particularly for fourth place. The Linke have led several late-August surveys (e.g., Forsa at 22%), followed closely by the CDU and AfD (both around 18% in the same poll), with the Grüne at 16%. Earlier summer polling showed similar volatility, including brief AfD leads and shifts tied to the CDU’s candidate change from Kai Wegner to Stefan Evers after criticism of the incumbent’s handling of a major power outage. Trader probabilities reflect this competitive dynamic and the limited room for any single party to pull decisively ahead in the final weeks. Factors that could create separation include late campaign momentum for any of the four leading parties, differential turnout among their respective bases, or events that alter perceptions of the CDU-SPD governing coalition’s performance. Smaller parties such as the SPD, FDP, and BSW remain well below the threshold needed to influence the top-four ordering.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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