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Вибори·Близький Схід

Переможець парламентських виборів у Лівані

icon for Переможець парламентських виборів у Лівані
Вибори·Близький Схід

Переможець парламентських виборів у Лівані

Рух «Амаль» (Амаль) <1%

Lebanese Forces (LF) <1%

Вільний патріотичний рух (ВПР) <1%

Партія Такаддом <1%

Polymarket

$667,854 Обс.

Рух «Амаль» (Амаль) <1%

Lebanese Forces (LF) <1%

Вільний патріотичний рух (ВПР) <1%

Партія Такаддом <1%

Polymarket

$667,854 Обс.

Рух «Амаль» (Амаль)

$63,909 Обс.

1%

Lebanese Forces (LF)

$167,783 Обс.

<1%

Вільний патріотичний рух (ВПР)

$80,518 Обс.

<1%

Партія Такаддом

$11,776 Обс.

<1%

Лана – Соціал-демократична партія (Лана)

$13,761 Обс.

<1%

Альянс Ватані (Ватані)

$7,539 Обс.

<1%

Хезболла (Hezb)

$52,901 Обс.

<1%

Партія Катаїб (Катаїб)

$7,370 Обс.

<1%

Рух Марада (MM)

$8,688 Обс.

<1%

Ісламська група (ІГ)

$8,631 Обс.

<1%

Арабська соціалістична партія Баас у Лівані (Баас)

$10,710 Обс.

<1%

Хатт Ахмар

$9,477 Обс.

<1%

Партія національного діалогу (ПНД)

$47,398 Обс.

<1%

Прогресивна соціалістична партія (ПСП)

$55,015 Обс.

<1%

Рух незалежності (IM)

$8,894 Обс.

<1%

Асоціація ісламських благодійних проектів (ICPA)

$9,181 Обс.

<1%

Національна ліберальна партія (НЛП)

$9,599 Обс.

<1%

Партія Мада (Мада)

$28,113 Обс.

<1%

Рух Гідності (РГ)

$29,195 Обс.

<1%

ReLebanon

$9,819 Обс.

<1%

Вірменська революційна федерація (АРФ)

$10,552 Обс.

<1%

Union Party (UP)

$7,760 Обс.

<1%

Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)

$9,264 Обс.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.The postponement of Lebanon's parliamentary elections from May 2026 to 2028, approved by parliament amid the escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, has left the race for the largest bloc in the 128-seat assembly highly fragmented. Trader consensus reflects deep uncertainty over outcomes in a confessional system where no single party has historically secured an outright majority, forcing reliance on shifting alliances among groups like Amal, Lebanese Forces, Hezbollah, and the Free Patriotic Movement. Key differentiators include control of Shiite seats in the south, Christian representation in Mount Lebanon, and diaspora voting patterns, alongside the performance of 2022 "Change" independents. Recent military developments, security disruptions, and stalled reforms have suppressed polling clarity and reinforced expectations of coalition negotiations rather than dominance by any listed contender.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Обсяг
$667,854
Дата завершення
May 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.The postponement of Lebanon's parliamentary elections from May 2026 to 2028, approved by parliament amid the escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, has left the race for the largest bloc in the 128-seat assembly highly fragmented. Trader consensus reflects deep uncertainty over outcomes in a confessional system where no single party has historically secured an outright majority, forcing reliance on shifting alliances among groups like Amal, Lebanese Forces, Hezbollah, and the Free Patriotic Movement. Key differentiators include control of Shiite seats in the south, Christian representation in Mount Lebanon, and diaspora voting patterns, alongside the performance of 2022 "Change" independents. Recent military developments, security disruptions, and stalled reforms have suppressed polling clarity and reinforced expectations of coalition negotiations rather than dominance by any listed contender.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Обсяг
$667,854
Дата завершення
May 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Пов'язане

icon for Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?

Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?

41%
icon for Чи отримає «Єдина Росія» (ЄР) найбільше місць на наступних парламентських виборах у Росії?

Чи отримає «Єдина Росія» (ЄР) найбільше місць на наступних парламентських виборах у Росії?

99%
Так
icon for Will PI get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?

Will PI get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?

37%

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Переможець парламентських виборів у Лівані» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 23 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Рух «Амаль» (Амаль)» з 1%, далі «Lebanese Forces (LF)» з 0%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Переможець парламентських виборів у Лівані» згенерував $667.9K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Jan 6, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Переможець парламентських виборів у Лівані», перегляньте 23 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Це відкритий ринок. Поточний лідер для «Переможець парламентських виборів у Лівані» — «Рух «Амаль» (Амаль)» лише з 1%, а «Lebanese Forces (LF)» — близько позаду з 0%. Жоден результат не має впевненої більшості — трейдери вважають це дуже невизначеним.

Правила вирішення для «Переможець парламентських виборів у Лівані» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.