Recent readings of Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) have held near 1.8-1.9% year-over-year through July 2026 nationally, with Tokyo's August figure accelerating to 2.0%, reflecting steady services and goods price pass-through amid wage growth. The Bank of Japan's July 2026 Outlook projects underlying inflation rising gradually toward 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026, supported by yen depreciation, AI-driven semiconductor demand, and corporate price adjustments, while government energy subsidies and base effects from Middle East-related oil costs continue to cap near-term upside. Trader consensus reflected in the 58.5% implied probability for a 2.0-2.4% 2026 outcome aligns with this path and the BOJ's baseline scenario, though the 41.5% chance assigned to ≤1.9% accounts for risks from prolonged subsidies or softer demand. The September 17-18 FOMC-equivalent policy meeting and upcoming national CPI releases represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоJapan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
2.0-2.4% 59%
≤1.9% 42%
3.0-3.4% <1%
2.5-2.9% <1%
$43,177 Обс.
$43,177 Обс.
Feb 12, 2027
≤1.9%
42%
2.0-2.4%
59%
2.5-2.9%
<1%
3.0-3.4%
1%
3.5-3.9%
<1%
4.0%+
<1%
2.0-2.4% 59%
≤1.9% 42%
3.0-3.4% <1%
2.5-2.9% <1%
$43,177 Обс.
$43,177 Обс.
Feb 12, 2027
≤1.9%
$12,404 Обс.
42%
2.0-2.4%
$17,113 Обс.
59%
2.5-2.9%
$9,443 Обс.
<1%
3.0-3.4%
$1,322 Обс.
1%
3.5-3.9%
$1,326 Обс.
<1%
4.0%+
$1,569 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent readings of Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) have held near 1.8-1.9% year-over-year through July 2026 nationally, with Tokyo's August figure accelerating to 2.0%, reflecting steady services and goods price pass-through amid wage growth. The Bank of Japan's July 2026 Outlook projects underlying inflation rising gradually toward 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026, supported by yen depreciation, AI-driven semiconductor demand, and corporate price adjustments, while government energy subsidies and base effects from Middle East-related oil costs continue to cap near-term upside. Trader consensus reflected in the 58.5% implied probability for a 2.0-2.4% 2026 outcome aligns with this path and the BOJ's baseline scenario, though the 41.5% chance assigned to ≤1.9% accounts for risks from prolonged subsidies or softer demand. The September 17-18 FOMC-equivalent policy meeting and upcoming national CPI releases represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Обсяг
$43,177Дата завершення
Feb 12, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent readings of Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) have held near 1.8-1.9% year-over-year through July 2026 nationally, with Tokyo's August figure accelerating to 2.0%, reflecting steady services and goods price pass-through amid wage growth. The Bank of Japan's July 2026 Outlook projects underlying inflation rising gradually toward 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026, supported by yen depreciation, AI-driven semiconductor demand, and corporate price adjustments, while government energy subsidies and base effects from Middle East-related oil costs continue to cap near-term upside. Trader consensus reflected in the 58.5% implied probability for a 2.0-2.4% 2026 outcome aligns with this path and the BOJ's baseline scenario, though the 41.5% chance assigned to ≤1.9% accounts for risks from prolonged subsidies or softer demand. The September 17-18 FOMC-equivalent policy meeting and upcoming national CPI releases represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Обсяг
$43,177Дата завершення
Feb 12, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent readings of Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) have held near 1.8-1.9% year-over-year through July 2026 nationally, with Tokyo's August figure accelerating to 2.0%, reflecting steady services and goods price pass-through amid wage growth. The Bank of Japan's July 2026 Outlook projects underlying inflation rising gradually toward 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026, supported by yen depreciation, AI-driven semiconductor demand, and corporate price adjustments, while government energy subsidies and base effects from Middle East-related oil costs continue to cap near-term upside. Trader consensus reflected in the 58.5% implied probability for a 2.0-2.4% 2026 outcome aligns with this path and the BOJ's baseline scenario, though the 41.5% chance assigned to ≤1.9% accounts for risks from prolonged subsidies or softer demand. The September 17-18 FOMC-equivalent policy meeting and upcoming national CPI releases represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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