Recent inflation data showing acceleration to around 6.3% by late August, alongside elevated inflation expectations and steady lending growth, have reinforced trader expectations for the Bank of Russia to hold its key rate at 14% during the September 11 meeting. Pro-inflationary pressures from higher fuel prices, ruble weakness, and a more expansionary fiscal stance with larger budget deficits have prompted the central bank to adopt a cautious easing pace, as reflected in prior 25 basis point reductions and upward revisions to its 2026 rate path forecast. Market consensus among economists favors no change to preserve flexibility amid these risks, though a modest cut cannot be ruled out if incoming Rosstat figures and credit trends signal sustained disinflation.