Forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles converge on a daytime high near 30°C for Tokyo on September 14, driven by southerly winds advecting warmer, humid air masses under partly cloudy skies with minimal daytime precipitation. This setup favors peak readings in the 29–31°C range, aligning with market-implied probabilities where 30°C leads at 48.5%. Recent observations show current temperatures around 26–27°C with strengthening southerly flow, supporting modest warming without extreme heat indices. Low overnight minima near 22–24°C further constrain the daily maximum, while model consensus reduces outlier risks for 28°C or below. Updated runs tomorrow morning will refine any late adjustments from cloud or wind variability.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 14?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 14?
30°C 50%
29°C 24%
31°C 16%
28°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 14, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
8%
29°C
24%
30°C
50%
31°C
16%
32°C
4%
33°C
2%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 50%
29°C 24%
31°C 16%
28°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 14, 2026
25°C or below
$1,450 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$379 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$401 Обс.
2%
28°C
$514 Обс.
8%
29°C
$1,470 Обс.
24%
30°C
$1,259 Обс.
50%
31°C
$2,695 Обс.
16%
32°C
$429 Обс.
4%
33°C
$267 Обс.
2%
34°C
$335 Обс.
<1%
35°C or higher
$693 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles converge on a daytime high near 30°C for Tokyo on September 14, driven by southerly winds advecting warmer, humid air masses under partly cloudy skies with minimal daytime precipitation. This setup favors peak readings in the 29–31°C range, aligning with market-implied probabilities where 30°C leads at 48.5%. Recent observations show current temperatures around 26–27°C with strengthening southerly flow, supporting modest warming without extreme heat indices. Low overnight minima near 22–24°C further constrain the daily maximum, while model consensus reduces outlier risks for 28°C or below. Updated runs tomorrow morning will refine any late adjustments from cloud or wind variability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$9,891Дата завершення
Sep 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles converge on a daytime high near 30°C for Tokyo on September 14, driven by southerly winds advecting warmer, humid air masses under partly cloudy skies with minimal daytime precipitation. This setup favors peak readings in the 29–31°C range, aligning with market-implied probabilities where 30°C leads at 48.5%. Recent observations show current temperatures around 26–27°C with strengthening southerly flow, supporting modest warming without extreme heat indices. Low overnight minima near 22–24°C further constrain the daily maximum, while model consensus reduces outlier risks for 28°C or below. Updated runs tomorrow morning will refine any late adjustments from cloud or wind variability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$9,891Дата завершення
Sep 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles converge on a daytime high near 30°C for Tokyo on September 14, driven by southerly winds advecting warmer, humid air masses under partly cloudy skies with minimal daytime precipitation. This setup favors peak readings in the 29–31°C range, aligning with market-implied probabilities where 30°C leads at 48.5%. Recent observations show current temperatures around 26–27°C with strengthening southerly flow, supporting modest warming without extreme heat indices. Low overnight minima near 22–24°C further constrain the daily maximum, while model consensus reduces outlier risks for 28°C or below. Updated runs tomorrow morning will refine any late adjustments from cloud or wind variability.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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