Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance for Madrid shows daytime highs clustered near 30–34 °C on August 20 under a weakening subtropical ridge, with limited warm advection and mostly sunny conditions expected. Minor differences in predicted maximums stem from small variations in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and steering flow across the central plateau, producing tight model spreads that explain the near-even market-implied probabilities across the 29–36 °C range. Historical August averages of 31–33 °C provide context, yet the current setup’s modest uncertainty keeps extremes below 10 % probability until updated runs narrow the forecast window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on August 20?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 20?
32°C 45%
31°C 32%
33°C 20%
30°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 20, 2026
28°C or below
1%
29°C
7%
30°C
12%
31°C
32%
32°C
37%
33°C
20%
34°C
9%
35°C
11%
36°C
4%
37°C
1%
38°C or higher
1%
32°C 45%
31°C 32%
33°C 20%
30°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 20, 2026
28°C or below
$5 Обс.
1%
29°C
$0 Обс.
7%
30°C
$0 Обс.
12%
31°C
$23 Обс.
32%
32°C
$44 Обс.
37%
33°C
$18 Обс.
20%
34°C
$0 Обс.
9%
35°C
$5 Обс.
11%
36°C
$5 Обс.
4%
37°C
$5 Обс.
1%
38°C or higher
$5 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance for Madrid shows daytime highs clustered near 30–34 °C on August 20 under a weakening subtropical ridge, with limited warm advection and mostly sunny conditions expected. Minor differences in predicted maximums stem from small variations in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and steering flow across the central plateau, producing tight model spreads that explain the near-even market-implied probabilities across the 29–36 °C range. Historical August averages of 31–33 °C provide context, yet the current setup’s modest uncertainty keeps extremes below 10 % probability until updated runs narrow the forecast window.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$110Дата завершення
Aug 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance for Madrid shows daytime highs clustered near 30–34 °C on August 20 under a weakening subtropical ridge, with limited warm advection and mostly sunny conditions expected. Minor differences in predicted maximums stem from small variations in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and steering flow across the central plateau, producing tight model spreads that explain the near-even market-implied probabilities across the 29–36 °C range. Historical August averages of 31–33 °C provide context, yet the current setup’s modest uncertainty keeps extremes below 10 % probability until updated runs narrow the forecast window.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$110Дата завершення
Aug 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance for Madrid shows daytime highs clustered near 30–34 °C on August 20 under a weakening subtropical ridge, with limited warm advection and mostly sunny conditions expected. Minor differences in predicted maximums stem from small variations in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and steering flow across the central plateau, producing tight model spreads that explain the near-even market-implied probabilities across the 29–36 °C range. Historical August averages of 31–33 °C provide context, yet the current setup’s modest uncertainty keeps extremes below 10 % probability until updated runs narrow the forecast window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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