Alfredo Gaspar’s selection as Flavio Bolsonaro’s vice-presidential running mate, formally announced on August 5, 2026, by the Liberal Party (PL) presidential candidate, has produced the market’s near-certain outcome. The choice concluded extended internal discussions after higher-profile alternatives, including attempts to recruit a female candidate from allied parties, did not secure endorsements. Gaspar, a federal deputy from Alagoas and former state public-security secretary, emerged as the PL’s preferred option to complete an all-party ticket ahead of the October election. Trader consensus at 98.7% reflects the binding nature of the public nomination and standard electoral timelines. Shifts remain possible only through extraordinary late developments such as disqualification rulings, major new legal findings, or an unforeseen ticket change by the candidate or party leadership before the electoral authority’s final deadline.