Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent São Paulo governor, maintains a commanding lead in the October 2026 gubernatorial race due to consistent polling margins of 13–17 points over Fernando Haddad in first-round surveys and stronger runoff projections. Recent withdrawals by other contenders, including Kim Kataguiri, have consolidated center-right and conservative alliances behind the Republicanos candidate while narrowing the field and raising prospects of a first-round decision. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects this structural advantage and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unforeseen shifts in turnout, last-minute coalition realignments, or significant personal or legal developments affecting any major candidate before election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоTarcísio de Freitas 96.5%
Fernando Haddad 3.0%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$284,137 Обс.
$284,137 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
97%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 96.5%
Fernando Haddad 3.0%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$284,137 Обс.
$284,137 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$127,029 Обс.
97%
Fernando Haddad
$47,765 Обс.
3%
Erika Hilton
$22,704 Обс.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$75,971 Обс.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Обс.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent São Paulo governor, maintains a commanding lead in the October 2026 gubernatorial race due to consistent polling margins of 13–17 points over Fernando Haddad in first-round surveys and stronger runoff projections. Recent withdrawals by other contenders, including Kim Kataguiri, have consolidated center-right and conservative alliances behind the Republicanos candidate while narrowing the field and raising prospects of a first-round decision. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects this structural advantage and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unforeseen shifts in turnout, last-minute coalition realignments, or significant personal or legal developments affecting any major candidate before election day.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Ринок відкрито: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Обсяг
$284,137Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent São Paulo governor, maintains a commanding lead in the October 2026 gubernatorial race due to consistent polling margins of 13–17 points over Fernando Haddad in first-round surveys and stronger runoff projections. Recent withdrawals by other contenders, including Kim Kataguiri, have consolidated center-right and conservative alliances behind the Republicanos candidate while narrowing the field and raising prospects of a first-round decision. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects this structural advantage and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unforeseen shifts in turnout, last-minute coalition realignments, or significant personal or legal developments affecting any major candidate before election day.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Обсяг
$284,137Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent São Paulo governor, maintains a commanding lead in the October 2026 gubernatorial race due to consistent polling margins of 13–17 points over Fernando Haddad in first-round surveys and stronger runoff projections. Recent withdrawals by other contenders, including Kim Kataguiri, have consolidated center-right and conservative alliances behind the Republicanos candidate while narrowing the field and raising prospects of a first-round decision. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects this structural advantage and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unforeseen shifts in turnout, last-minute coalition realignments, or significant personal or legal developments affecting any major candidate before election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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