Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads first-round polling around 40-42 percent as he seeks a fourth term, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro consolidates right-wing support at 33-36 percent following his father Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility. Other contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos poll in the low single digits, limiting their paths to the top two spots required for the October 25 runoff. Recent mid-August campaign launches have emphasized Lula's job-creation record and Flávio's focus on crime, amid ongoing voter concerns over security and economic issues. Trader consensus reflects this polarized dynamic, with the first-round vote on October 4 serving as the immediate test of whether the frontrunners maintain their positions ahead of potential runoff qualification.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
$482,676 Обс.
Oct 3, 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
93%
Renan Santos
6%
Romeu Zema
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
$482,676 Обс.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$219,341 Обс.
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$48,887 Обс.
93%
Renan Santos
$15,807 Обс.
6%
Romeu Zema
$610 Обс.
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
$698 Обс.
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$34,442 Обс.
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
$81,768 Обс.
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$15,629 Обс.
1%
Fernando Haddad
$65,495 Обс.
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads first-round polling around 40-42 percent as he seeks a fourth term, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro consolidates right-wing support at 33-36 percent following his father Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility. Other contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos poll in the low single digits, limiting their paths to the top two spots required for the October 25 runoff. Recent mid-August campaign launches have emphasized Lula's job-creation record and Flávio's focus on crime, amid ongoing voter concerns over security and economic issues. Trader consensus reflects this polarized dynamic, with the first-round vote on October 4 serving as the immediate test of whether the frontrunners maintain their positions ahead of potential runoff qualification.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Ринок відкрито: Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
Обсяг
$482,676Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads first-round polling around 40-42 percent as he seeks a fourth term, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro consolidates right-wing support at 33-36 percent following his father Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility. Other contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos poll in the low single digits, limiting their paths to the top two spots required for the October 25 runoff. Recent mid-August campaign launches have emphasized Lula's job-creation record and Flávio's focus on crime, amid ongoing voter concerns over security and economic issues. Trader consensus reflects this polarized dynamic, with the first-round vote on October 4 serving as the immediate test of whether the frontrunners maintain their positions ahead of potential runoff qualification.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Обсяг
$482,676Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads first-round polling around 40-42 percent as he seeks a fourth term, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro consolidates right-wing support at 33-36 percent following his father Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility. Other contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos poll in the low single digits, limiting their paths to the top two spots required for the October 25 runoff. Recent mid-August campaign launches have emphasized Lula's job-creation record and Flávio's focus on crime, amid ongoing voter concerns over security and economic issues. Trader consensus reflects this polarized dynamic, with the first-round vote on October 4 serving as the immediate test of whether the frontrunners maintain their positions ahead of potential runoff qualification.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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