Catalina Lauf holds a narrow lead in the August 18 Republican primary for Florida’s 19th Congressional District, an open seat vacated by Byron Donalds. Recent polling from Victory Insights and Cygnal shows Lauf and local businessman Jim Schwartzel essentially tied in the high teens among likely primary voters, with Jim Oberweis in low double digits and the rest of the field in single digits or lower. Late endorsements from sitting Florida Republicans Greg Steube and Kat Cammack have bolstered Lauf, alongside her leading individual fundraising and prior Trump administration experience. Schwartzel benefits from strong Southwest Florida name recognition and media ties. Oberweis draws some support from prior Illinois political experience but trails. With most voters still undecided days before the vote, the tight contest and limited remaining time explain the current trader consensus favoring Lauf over Schwartzel while assigning minimal probability to the remaining candidates.