Elevated inflation pressures from energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, alongside resilient economic growth and labor market conditions, have driven the 71.5% market-implied probability that the Federal Reserve will deliver at least one rate hike in 2026. Recent FOMC communications and the June dot plot revealed a growing number of participants projecting higher policy rates by year-end, reflecting a more hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh compared to prior guidance. July CPI data showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while the target federal funds rate remains steady at 3.50-3.75%. Traders are closely watching the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and the August CPI release for signals on whether tightening will begin amid ongoing uncertainty.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоТак
72% шанс
$8,753,900 Обс.
$8,753,900 Обс.
Dec 8, 2026
Так
72% шанс
$8,753,900 Обс.
$8,753,900 Обс.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation pressures from energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, alongside resilient economic growth and labor market conditions, have driven the 71.5% market-implied probability that the Federal Reserve will deliver at least one rate hike in 2026. Recent FOMC communications and the June dot plot revealed a growing number of participants projecting higher policy rates by year-end, reflecting a more hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh compared to prior guidance. July CPI data showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while the target federal funds rate remains steady at 3.50-3.75%. Traders are closely watching the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and the August CPI release for signals on whether tightening will begin amid ongoing uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$8,753,900Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation pressures from energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, alongside resilient economic growth and labor market conditions, have driven the 71.5% market-implied probability that the Federal Reserve will deliver at least one rate hike in 2026. Recent FOMC communications and the June dot plot revealed a growing number of participants projecting higher policy rates by year-end, reflecting a more hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh compared to prior guidance. July CPI data showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while the target federal funds rate remains steady at 3.50-3.75%. Traders are closely watching the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and the August CPI release for signals on whether tightening will begin amid ongoing uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$8,753,900Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation pressures from energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, alongside resilient economic growth and labor market conditions, have driven the 71.5% market-implied probability that the Federal Reserve will deliver at least one rate hike in 2026. Recent FOMC communications and the June dot plot revealed a growing number of participants projecting higher policy rates by year-end, reflecting a more hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh compared to prior guidance. July CPI data showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while the target federal funds rate remains steady at 3.50-3.75%. Traders are closely watching the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and the August CPI release for signals on whether tightening will begin amid ongoing uncertainty.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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