Recent labor market resilience, with August unemployment steady at 4.1% and nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000, alongside headline CPI near 3.4% year-over-year, has kept the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% while sustaining debate over near-term tightening. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, featuring updated economic projections and dot plot, serves as the immediate catalyst, with market-implied pricing reflecting roughly even odds between a hold and a 25 basis point hike. Fragmented trader consensus across the three-meeting sequence stems from uncertainty over whether inflation momentum or softening growth signals will dominate, tempered by the Fed’s dual mandate and recent policy communications. October and December decisions, plus intervening data releases, remain key swing factors that could shift implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоPause–Pause–Pause 29%
Hike–Pause–Pause 19%
Pause–Hike–Pause 12.7%
Pause–Pause–Hike 12%
$10,928 Обс.
$10,928 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
9%
Hike–Pause–Pause
19%
Hike–Hike–Hike
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
7%
Pause–Pause–Hike
12%
Pause–Pause–Pause
29%
Pause–Hike–Hike
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
13%
Other
5%
Pause–Pause–Pause 29%
Hike–Pause–Pause 19%
Pause–Hike–Pause 12.7%
Pause–Pause–Hike 12%
$10,928 Обс.
$10,928 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 Обс.
9%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$296 Обс.
19%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 Обс.
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$237 Обс.
7%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$253 Обс.
12%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$8,958 Обс.
29%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$237 Обс.
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$214 Обс.
13%
Other
$203 Обс.
5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent labor market resilience, with August unemployment steady at 4.1% and nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000, alongside headline CPI near 3.4% year-over-year, has kept the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% while sustaining debate over near-term tightening. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, featuring updated economic projections and dot plot, serves as the immediate catalyst, with market-implied pricing reflecting roughly even odds between a hold and a 25 basis point hike. Fragmented trader consensus across the three-meeting sequence stems from uncertainty over whether inflation momentum or softening growth signals will dominate, tempered by the Fed’s dual mandate and recent policy communications. October and December decisions, plus intervening data releases, remain key swing factors that could shift implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$10,928Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent labor market resilience, with August unemployment steady at 4.1% and nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000, alongside headline CPI near 3.4% year-over-year, has kept the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% while sustaining debate over near-term tightening. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, featuring updated economic projections and dot plot, serves as the immediate catalyst, with market-implied pricing reflecting roughly even odds between a hold and a 25 basis point hike. Fragmented trader consensus across the three-meeting sequence stems from uncertainty over whether inflation momentum or softening growth signals will dominate, tempered by the Fed’s dual mandate and recent policy communications. October and December decisions, plus intervening data releases, remain key swing factors that could shift implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$10,928Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent labor market resilience, with August unemployment steady at 4.1% and nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000, alongside headline CPI near 3.4% year-over-year, has kept the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% while sustaining debate over near-term tightening. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, featuring updated economic projections and dot plot, serves as the immediate catalyst, with market-implied pricing reflecting roughly even odds between a hold and a 25 basis point hike. Fragmented trader consensus across the three-meeting sequence stems from uncertainty over whether inflation momentum or softening growth signals will dominate, tempered by the Fed’s dual mandate and recent policy communications. October and December decisions, plus intervening data releases, remain key swing factors that could shift implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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