Strong El Niño conditions now developing across the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.1 °C and models projecting further intensification to very strong or record levels by late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver pushing the August 2026 global mean temperature anomaly above 1.29 °C. This event overlays the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, as evidenced by June 2026 ranking as the second-warmest June on record at roughly 1.49 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Recent WMO and Berkeley Earth assessments highlight elevated odds for sustained high anomalies through 2026–2027, consistent with the 78.5 % market-implied probability for the highest outcome band.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 79%
1.25–1.29ºC 17%
1.20–1.24ºC 6%
1.10–1.14ºC 3.8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
4%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
6%
1.25–1.29ºC
17%
>1.29ºC
79%
>1.29ºC 79%
1.25–1.29ºC 17%
1.20–1.24ºC 6%
1.10–1.14ºC 3.8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
$710 Обс.
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$545 Обс.
4%
1.15–1.19ºC
$458 Обс.
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$342 Обс.
6%
1.25–1.29ºC
$327 Обс.
17%
>1.29ºC
$1,045 Обс.
79%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions now developing across the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.1 °C and models projecting further intensification to very strong or record levels by late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver pushing the August 2026 global mean temperature anomaly above 1.29 °C. This event overlays the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, as evidenced by June 2026 ranking as the second-warmest June on record at roughly 1.49 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Recent WMO and Berkeley Earth assessments highlight elevated odds for sustained high anomalies through 2026–2027, consistent with the 78.5 % market-implied probability for the highest outcome band.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,427Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions now developing across the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.1 °C and models projecting further intensification to very strong or record levels by late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver pushing the August 2026 global mean temperature anomaly above 1.29 °C. This event overlays the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, as evidenced by June 2026 ranking as the second-warmest June on record at roughly 1.49 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Recent WMO and Berkeley Earth assessments highlight elevated odds for sustained high anomalies through 2026–2027, consistent with the 78.5 % market-implied probability for the highest outcome band.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$3,427Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions now developing across the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.1 °C and models projecting further intensification to very strong or record levels by late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver pushing the August 2026 global mean temperature anomaly above 1.29 °C. This event overlays the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, as evidenced by June 2026 ranking as the second-warmest June on record at roughly 1.49 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Recent WMO and Berkeley Earth assessments highlight elevated odds for sustained high anomalies through 2026–2027, consistent with the 78.5 % market-implied probability for the highest outcome band.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання