Germany’s parliamentary system imposes a high procedural threshold for removing a chancellor, requiring either a successful constructive vote of no confidence or a coalition collapse that forces early elections—neither of which has materialized despite coalition strains. Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU-SPD government has passed targeted reforms on health, labor, and economic measures through mid-2026, with party leaders including Markus Söder publicly affirming continuity. Internal dissent over a July cabinet reshuffle and AfD polling gains have fueled speculation ahead of September state votes, yet no leadership revolt or viable successor push has gained traction. Traders price the 82.5% “No” probability on the short remaining window to year-end and the coalition’s shared incentive to avoid empowering the far-right opposition before the scheduled 2029 term.