Traders assign a 96.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the short remaining window and absence of verifiable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for such an operation. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Beijing lacks a fixed unification timeline and continues prioritizing coercive gray-zone activities, including maritime enforcement and military drills around the strait, over direct conflict. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang exercises test reservist mobilization and supply resilience but show no corresponding escalation from the mainland. Structural barriers such as high projected costs, U.S. and allied deterrence commitments, and intelligence monitoring further reinforce this consensus. Late developments like rapid miscalculation during exercises or unforeseen policy shifts remain possible but face significant timing and operational constraints before year-end.