**Recent US and Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while limiting IAEA inspector access and leaving substantial stockpiles of uranium enriched up to 60% buried or inaccessible.** US intelligence assessments, including DNI testimony in March 2026, indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment, and no structured weaponization program or testing preparations have been confirmed by the IAEA. Iranian officials maintain the program remains peaceful, consistent with long-standing policy against nuclear weapons development. Ongoing diplomatic contacts and sanctions pressures further constrain rapid reconstitution, making a detectable nuclear test before 2027 highly unlikely under current conditions. Trader consensus reflects these verified setbacks, restricted capabilities, and absence of breakout indicators in recent reporting.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$207,018 Vol.
$207,018 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$207,018 Vol.
$207,018 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Recent US and Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while limiting IAEA inspector access and leaving substantial stockpiles of uranium enriched up to 60% buried or inaccessible.** US intelligence assessments, including DNI testimony in March 2026, indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment, and no structured weaponization program or testing preparations have been confirmed by the IAEA. Iranian officials maintain the program remains peaceful, consistent with long-standing policy against nuclear weapons development.
Ongoing diplomatic contacts and sanctions pressures further constrain rapid reconstitution, making a detectable nuclear test before 2027 highly unlikely under current conditions. Trader consensus reflects these verified setbacks, restricted capabilities, and absence of breakout indicators in recent reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$207,018Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Recent US and Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while limiting IAEA inspector access and leaving substantial stockpiles of uranium enriched up to 60% buried or inaccessible.** US intelligence assessments, including DNI testimony in March 2026, indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment, and no structured weaponization program or testing preparations have been confirmed by the IAEA. Iranian officials maintain the program remains peaceful, consistent with long-standing policy against nuclear weapons development.
Ongoing diplomatic contacts and sanctions pressures further constrain rapid reconstitution, making a detectable nuclear test before 2027 highly unlikely under current conditions. Trader consensus reflects these verified setbacks, restricted capabilities, and absence of breakout indicators in recent reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$207,018Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent US and Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while limiting IAEA inspector access and leaving substantial stockpiles of uranium enriched up to 60% buried or inaccessible.** US intelligence assessments, including DNI testimony in March 2026, indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment, and no structured weaponization program or testing preparations have been confirmed by the IAEA. Iranian officials maintain the program remains peaceful, consistent with long-standing policy against nuclear weapons development. Ongoing diplomatic contacts and sanctions pressures further constrain rapid reconstitution, making a detectable nuclear test before 2027 highly unlikely under current conditions. Trader consensus reflects these verified setbacks, restricted capabilities, and absence of breakout indicators in recent reporting.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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