Ongoing military operations and stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations explain the strong trader consensus against a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia peace agreement by the end of 2026. Fundamental gaps persist over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s future alignment, with Russia maintaining maximalist demands and rejecting unconditional ceasefires. Early 2026 trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi produced no breakthrough, prisoner exchanges aside, while attention shifted amid the Iran conflict. Recent Ukrainian proposals and brief holiday ceasefires have not altered Moscow’s stance, as the Kremlin stated in July there are no immediate prospects for resuming substantive talks. These dynamics, combined with continued battlefield activity, sustain the view that a full deal remains unlikely within the resolution window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update14% tsansa
$2,567,084 Vol.
$2,567,084 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
14% tsansa
$2,567,084 Vol.
$2,567,084 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing military operations and stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations explain the strong trader consensus against a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia peace agreement by the end of 2026. Fundamental gaps persist over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s future alignment, with Russia maintaining maximalist demands and rejecting unconditional ceasefires. Early 2026 trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi produced no breakthrough, prisoner exchanges aside, while attention shifted amid the Iran conflict. Recent Ukrainian proposals and brief holiday ceasefires have not altered Moscow’s stance, as the Kremlin stated in July there are no immediate prospects for resuming substantive talks. These dynamics, combined with continued battlefield activity, sustain the view that a full deal remains unlikely within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,567,084Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing military operations and stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations explain the strong trader consensus against a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia peace agreement by the end of 2026. Fundamental gaps persist over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s future alignment, with Russia maintaining maximalist demands and rejecting unconditional ceasefires. Early 2026 trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi produced no breakthrough, prisoner exchanges aside, while attention shifted amid the Iran conflict. Recent Ukrainian proposals and brief holiday ceasefires have not altered Moscow’s stance, as the Kremlin stated in July there are no immediate prospects for resuming substantive talks. These dynamics, combined with continued battlefield activity, sustain the view that a full deal remains unlikely within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,567,084Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military operations and stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations explain the strong trader consensus against a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia peace agreement by the end of 2026. Fundamental gaps persist over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s future alignment, with Russia maintaining maximalist demands and rejecting unconditional ceasefires. Early 2026 trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi produced no breakthrough, prisoner exchanges aside, while attention shifted amid the Iran conflict. Recent Ukrainian proposals and brief holiday ceasefires have not altered Moscow’s stance, as the Kremlin stated in July there are no immediate prospects for resuming substantive talks. These dynamics, combined with continued battlefield activity, sustain the view that a full deal remains unlikely within the resolution window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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