Persistent deadlock over territorial control in four Ukrainian regions, security guarantees, and ceasefire monitoring continues to suppress probabilities for a comprehensive agreement by late 2026. Russia has conditioned any progress on recognition of its claims and dismissed recent proposals for limited pauses or Black Sea measures as insufficient half-measures, while Ukraine's August submissions to U.S. mediators have not narrowed gaps. U.S.-brokered short-term halts, including the three-day May pause tied to a prisoner swap, collapsed amid mutual violations and accusations, and trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi have stalled without breakthroughs. Kremlin statements in July and August indicated no immediate resumption of negotiations, sustaining trader caution despite ongoing U.S. mediation and Ukrainian calls for unconditional freezes.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent deadlock over territorial control in four Ukrainian regions, security guarantees, and ceasefire monitoring continues to suppress probabilities for a comprehensive agreement by late 2026. Russia has conditioned any progress on recognition of its claims and dismissed recent proposals for limited pauses or Black Sea measures as insufficient half-measures, while Ukraine's August submissions to U.S. mediators have not narrowed gaps. U.S.-brokered short-term halts, including the three-day May pause tied to a prisoner swap, collapsed amid mutual violations and accusations, and trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi have stalled without breakthroughs. Kremlin statements in July and August indicated no immediate resumption of negotiations, sustaining trader caution despite ongoing U.S. mediation and Ukrainian calls for unconditional freezes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volume
$5,924,343Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent deadlock over territorial control in four Ukrainian regions, security guarantees, and ceasefire monitoring continues to suppress probabilities for a comprehensive agreement by late 2026. Russia has conditioned any progress on recognition of its claims and dismissed recent proposals for limited pauses or Black Sea measures as insufficient half-measures, while Ukraine's August submissions to U.S. mediators have not narrowed gaps. U.S.-brokered short-term halts, including the three-day May pause tied to a prisoner swap, collapsed amid mutual violations and accusations, and trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi have stalled without breakthroughs. Kremlin statements in July and August indicated no immediate resumption of negotiations, sustaining trader caution despite ongoing U.S. mediation and Ukrainian calls for unconditional freezes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,924,343Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent deadlock over territorial control in four Ukrainian regions, security guarantees, and ceasefire monitoring continues to suppress probabilities for a comprehensive agreement by late 2026. Russia has conditioned any progress on recognition of its claims and dismissed recent proposals for limited pauses or Black Sea measures as insufficient half-measures, while Ukraine's August submissions to U.S. mediators have not narrowed gaps. U.S.-brokered short-term halts, including the three-day May pause tied to a prisoner swap, collapsed amid mutual violations and accusations, and trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi have stalled without breakthroughs. Kremlin statements in July and August indicated no immediate resumption of negotiations, sustaining trader caution despite ongoing U.S. mediation and Ukrainian calls for unconditional freezes.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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