Recent surges in global oil prices above US$100 per barrel, driven by Middle East conflict, have lifted New Zealand headline inflation to 4.1% in the June 2026 quarter and prompted markets to reassess the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s path. After consecutive 25 basis point hikes in July and September that lifted the official cash rate to 2.75%, the September Monetary Policy Statement emphasized a gradual, data-dependent removal of stimulus while signaling that the next move was more likely in December than October. This guidance, combined with signs of economic recovery and core inflation measures still within the 1-3% target band, underpins the 72% implied probability of no change at the October 28 meeting. Rising Treasury yields and bank forecasts for additional tightening have lifted the chance of a 25 basis point increase to 25.5%, though the RBNZ’s preference for observing the effects of prior tightening keeps that scenario the secondary outcome.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNo change 72%
25 bps increase 26%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$39,915 Vol.
$39,915 Vol.
Oct 27, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
72%
25 bps increase
26%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 72%
25 bps increase 26%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$39,915 Vol.
$39,915 Vol.
Oct 27, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$3,785 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$3,425 Vol.
<1%
No change
$16,777 Vol.
72%
25 bps increase
$12,552 Vol.
26%
50+ bps increase
$3,376 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent surges in global oil prices above US$100 per barrel, driven by Middle East conflict, have lifted New Zealand headline inflation to 4.1% in the June 2026 quarter and prompted markets to reassess the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s path. After consecutive 25 basis point hikes in July and September that lifted the official cash rate to 2.75%, the September Monetary Policy Statement emphasized a gradual, data-dependent removal of stimulus while signaling that the next move was more likely in December than October. This guidance, combined with signs of economic recovery and core inflation measures still within the 1-3% target band, underpins the 72% implied probability of no change at the October 28 meeting. Rising Treasury yields and bank forecasts for additional tightening have lifted the chance of a 25 basis point increase to 25.5%, though the RBNZ’s preference for observing the effects of prior tightening keeps that scenario the secondary outcome.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 29, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$39,915Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 28, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 29, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent surges in global oil prices above US$100 per barrel, driven by Middle East conflict, have lifted New Zealand headline inflation to 4.1% in the June 2026 quarter and prompted markets to reassess the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s path. After consecutive 25 basis point hikes in July and September that lifted the official cash rate to 2.75%, the September Monetary Policy Statement emphasized a gradual, data-dependent removal of stimulus while signaling that the next move was more likely in December than October. This guidance, combined with signs of economic recovery and core inflation measures still within the 1-3% target band, underpins the 72% implied probability of no change at the October 28 meeting. Rising Treasury yields and bank forecasts for additional tightening have lifted the chance of a 25 basis point increase to 25.5%, though the RBNZ’s preference for observing the effects of prior tightening keeps that scenario the secondary outcome.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$39,915Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 28, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 29, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent surges in global oil prices above US$100 per barrel, driven by Middle East conflict, have lifted New Zealand headline inflation to 4.1% in the June 2026 quarter and prompted markets to reassess the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s path. After consecutive 25 basis point hikes in July and September that lifted the official cash rate to 2.75%, the September Monetary Policy Statement emphasized a gradual, data-dependent removal of stimulus while signaling that the next move was more likely in December than October. This guidance, combined with signs of economic recovery and core inflation measures still within the 1-3% target band, underpins the 72% implied probability of no change at the October 28 meeting. Rising Treasury yields and bank forecasts for additional tightening have lifted the chance of a 25 basis point increase to 25.5%, though the RBNZ’s preference for observing the effects of prior tightening keeps that scenario the secondary outcome.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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