Democratic incumbent Derek Tran advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote in California's 45th congressional district, facing Republican Chuong Vo in the November general election. Redistricting adjusted the seat's underlying partisan lean toward Democrats, building on Tran's narrow 2024 flip of the formerly Republican-held district. Forecasters rate the race Likely or Lean Democratic, supported by the incumbent's fundraising edge and broader suburban voter trends in Orange County. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though late shifts in turnout among key demographics or national political swings could still alter the outcome before November 3.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateCA-45 House Election Winner
CA-45 House Election Winner
$30,236 Vol.
$30,236 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
8%
$30,236 Vol.
$30,236 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$16,968 Vol.
91%
Republican Party
$13,267 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Derek Tran advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote in California's 45th congressional district, facing Republican Chuong Vo in the November general election. Redistricting adjusted the seat's underlying partisan lean toward Democrats, building on Tran's narrow 2024 flip of the formerly Republican-held district. Forecasters rate the race Likely or Lean Democratic, supported by the incumbent's fundraising edge and broader suburban voter trends in Orange County. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though late shifts in turnout among key demographics or national political swings could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$30,236Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Derek Tran advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote in California's 45th congressional district, facing Republican Chuong Vo in the November general election. Redistricting adjusted the seat's underlying partisan lean toward Democrats, building on Tran's narrow 2024 flip of the formerly Republican-held district. Forecasters rate the race Likely or Lean Democratic, supported by the incumbent's fundraising edge and broader suburban voter trends in Orange County. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though late shifts in turnout among key demographics or national political swings could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$30,236Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Derek Tran advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote in California's 45th congressional district, facing Republican Chuong Vo in the November general election. Redistricting adjusted the seat's underlying partisan lean toward Democrats, building on Tran's narrow 2024 flip of the formerly Republican-held district. Forecasters rate the race Likely or Lean Democratic, supported by the incumbent's fundraising edge and broader suburban voter trends in Orange County. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though late shifts in turnout among key demographics or national political swings could still alter the outcome before November 3.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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