**Jess Wilson leads the market at 64.5% as the favored next Premier of Victoria ahead of the November 28, 2026 state election, driven by sustained Coalition polling advantages and her positioning as Opposition Leader.** Recent DemosAU surveys show the Liberal-National Coalition ahead of Labor on a two-party-preferred basis by 55-45, with Wilson preferred as premier over incumbent Ben Carroll by 43-34 in head-to-head measures. Traders have priced in these trends following Wilson's elevation to Liberal leader in November 2025 and her release of targeted policies on justice reforms, bail changes, a 10-year economic plan, housing supply, and a first-100-days agenda centered on policing and cost-of-living relief. Labor's internal transition in late July 2026—when Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan amid caucus pressure and construction-sector concerns—has not reversed the Coalition's edge, though it introduced a royal commission reset effort. A three-way primary contest has emerged, with Labor, Coalition, and One Nation each polling near 23-27%, raising questions about preference flows and the potential for a hung parliament or minority government. Lower-priced options such as Carroll (20.5%), Warren Pickering (around 6-11% range across sources), and other Labor or minor-party figures reflect these structural headwinds and the limited time remaining before voters decide. Resolution hinges on official election outcomes or credible reporting confirming the new premier.