Recent opinion polls for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election show a fragmented primary vote, with Labor, the Liberal–National Coalition, and One Nation each polling in the mid-20s across multiple surveys, while the Greens sit near 12 percent. This three-way split, following Ben Carroll’s late-July ascension as Labor leader and premier, has kept second-place seat outcomes highly sensitive to preference flows and geographic distribution in the Legislative Assembly. Traders assign Labor the highest implied probability for second place because its primary support has proven more resilient in recent Resolve and Roy Morgan data and because historical preference patterns tend to concentrate seats among the two largest parties. The Coalition’s lower odds reflect expectations that it may secure first place outright in enough marginal seats, while One Nation’s surge has not yet translated into comparable seat projections due to limited winnable districts and preference leakage. Electoral reforms eliminating group voting tickets add further uncertainty to upper-house dynamics but leave lower-house seat math dependent on late-campaign shifts before polling day.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLabor 82%
Liberal–National 14.4%
One Nation 3.7%
Greens <1%
BAGO
BAGO
Nov 28, 2026
Labor
82%
Liberal–National
14%
One Nation
4%
Greens
1%
Labor 82%
Liberal–National 14.4%
One Nation 3.7%
Greens <1%
BAGO
BAGO
Nov 28, 2026
Labor
$948 Vol.
82%
Liberal–National
$273 Vol.
14%
One Nation
$410 Vol.
4%
Greens
$208 Vol.
1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent opinion polls for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election show a fragmented primary vote, with Labor, the Liberal–National Coalition, and One Nation each polling in the mid-20s across multiple surveys, while the Greens sit near 12 percent. This three-way split, following Ben Carroll’s late-July ascension as Labor leader and premier, has kept second-place seat outcomes highly sensitive to preference flows and geographic distribution in the Legislative Assembly. Traders assign Labor the highest implied probability for second place because its primary support has proven more resilient in recent Resolve and Roy Morgan data and because historical preference patterns tend to concentrate seats among the two largest parties. The Coalition’s lower odds reflect expectations that it may secure first place outright in enough marginal seats, while One Nation’s surge has not yet translated into comparable seat projections due to limited winnable districts and preference leakage. Electoral reforms eliminating group voting tickets add further uncertainty to upper-house dynamics but leave lower-house seat math dependent on late-campaign shifts before polling day.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$1,839Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 28, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent opinion polls for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election show a fragmented primary vote, with Labor, the Liberal–National Coalition, and One Nation each polling in the mid-20s across multiple surveys, while the Greens sit near 12 percent. This three-way split, following Ben Carroll’s late-July ascension as Labor leader and premier, has kept second-place seat outcomes highly sensitive to preference flows and geographic distribution in the Legislative Assembly. Traders assign Labor the highest implied probability for second place because its primary support has proven more resilient in recent Resolve and Roy Morgan data and because historical preference patterns tend to concentrate seats among the two largest parties. The Coalition’s lower odds reflect expectations that it may secure first place outright in enough marginal seats, while One Nation’s surge has not yet translated into comparable seat projections due to limited winnable districts and preference leakage. Electoral reforms eliminating group voting tickets add further uncertainty to upper-house dynamics but leave lower-house seat math dependent on late-campaign shifts before polling day.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$1,839Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 28, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent opinion polls for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election show a fragmented primary vote, with Labor, the Liberal–National Coalition, and One Nation each polling in the mid-20s across multiple surveys, while the Greens sit near 12 percent. This three-way split, following Ben Carroll’s late-July ascension as Labor leader and premier, has kept second-place seat outcomes highly sensitive to preference flows and geographic distribution in the Legislative Assembly. Traders assign Labor the highest implied probability for second place because its primary support has proven more resilient in recent Resolve and Roy Morgan data and because historical preference patterns tend to concentrate seats among the two largest parties. The Coalition’s lower odds reflect expectations that it may secure first place outright in enough marginal seats, while One Nation’s surge has not yet translated into comparable seat projections due to limited winnable districts and preference leakage. Electoral reforms eliminating group voting tickets add further uncertainty to upper-house dynamics but leave lower-house seat math dependent on late-campaign shifts before polling day.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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