Recent Joint Typhoon Warning Center and model consensus show Super Typhoon Dolphin weakening after peaking near Category 5 intensity, with sustained winds now around 125–145 mph and further decline expected over the next several days. Environmental factors including increasing wind shear, cooler sea-surface temperatures, and a gradual westward turn toward the Ryukyu Islands or East China Sea are projected to reduce the system to Category 1–2 strength before any potential landfall window in early August. Official forecasts indicate no scenario of Category 4+ intensity at landfall, consistent with historical analogs for storms recurving at similar latitudes during developing El Niño conditions. Updated JTWC guidance and ensemble runs through the coming week will refine the track and intensity trends.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher?
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher?
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ใหม่
Aug 16, 2026
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ใหม่
Aug 16, 2026
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Recent Joint Typhoon Warning Center and model consensus show Super Typhoon Dolphin weakening after peaking near Category 5 intensity, with sustained winds now around 125–145 mph and further decline expected over the next several days. Environmental factors including increasing wind shear, cooler sea-surface temperatures, and a gradual westward turn toward the Ryukyu Islands or East China Sea are projected to reduce the system to Category 1–2 strength before any potential landfall window in early August. Official forecasts indicate no scenario of Category 4+ intensity at landfall, consistent with historical analogs for storms recurving at similar latitudes during developing El Niño conditions. Updated JTWC guidance and ensemble runs through the coming week will refine the track and intensity trends.
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
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$25ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Recent Joint Typhoon Warning Center and model consensus show Super Typhoon Dolphin weakening after peaking near Category 5 intensity, with sustained winds now around 125–145 mph and further decline expected over the next several days. Environmental factors including increasing wind shear, cooler sea-surface temperatures, and a gradual westward turn toward the Ryukyu Islands or East China Sea are projected to reduce the system to Category 1–2 strength before any potential landfall window in early August. Official forecasts indicate no scenario of Category 4+ intensity at landfall, consistent with historical analogs for storms recurving at similar latitudes during developing El Niño conditions. Updated JTWC guidance and ensemble runs through the coming week will refine the track and intensity trends.
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$25วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Joint Typhoon Warning Center and model consensus show Super Typhoon Dolphin weakening after peaking near Category 5 intensity, with sustained winds now around 125–145 mph and further decline expected over the next several days. Environmental factors including increasing wind shear, cooler sea-surface temperatures, and a gradual westward turn toward the Ryukyu Islands or East China Sea are projected to reduce the system to Category 1–2 strength before any potential landfall window in early August. Official forecasts indicate no scenario of Category 4+ intensity at landfall, consistent with historical analogs for storms recurving at similar latitudes during developing El Niño conditions. Updated JTWC guidance and ensemble runs through the coming week will refine the track and intensity trends.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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