Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance for New York City on August 4, 2026, point to an overnight low near 71°F under persistent southerly flow, high dew points, and limited radiational cooling from partly cloudy skies and light winds. This aligns with the market's overwhelming 91.5% implied probability for the 70-71°F bin and sits within typical August climatology for Central Park observations. Warmer-than-average monthly outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center reinforce the baseline but do not alter the short-term pattern. The only realistic challenges involve a late forecast shift toward clearer skies or stronger northerly advection that could drop readings into the upper 60s, though current guidance shows low odds of such a change before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in NYC on August 4?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 4?
70-71°F 99%
68-69°F 2%
66-67°F <1%
60-61°F <1%
ใหม่
$11,747 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$11,747 ปริมาณ
Aug 4, 2026
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
2%
70-71°F
99%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 99%
68-69°F 2%
66-67°F <1%
60-61°F <1%
ใหม่
$11,747 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$11,747 ปริมาณ
Aug 4, 2026
59°F or below
$469 ปริมาณ
<1%
60-61°F
$165 ปริมาณ
<1%
62-63°F
$432 ปริมาณ
<1%
64-65°F
$534 ปริมาณ
<1%
66-67°F
$1,034 ปริมาณ
<1%
68-69°F
$2,051 ปริมาณ
2%
70-71°F
$859 ปริมาณ
99%
72-73°F
$3,035 ปริมาณ
<1%
74-75°F
$1,965 ปริมาณ
<1%
76-77°F
$778 ปริมาณ
<1%
78°F or higher
$424 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance for New York City on August 4, 2026, point to an overnight low near 71°F under persistent southerly flow, high dew points, and limited radiational cooling from partly cloudy skies and light winds. This aligns with the market's overwhelming 91.5% implied probability for the 70-71°F bin and sits within typical August climatology for Central Park observations. Warmer-than-average monthly outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center reinforce the baseline but do not alter the short-term pattern. The only realistic challenges involve a late forecast shift toward clearer skies or stronger northerly advection that could drop readings into the upper 60s, though current guidance shows low odds of such a change before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,747วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance for New York City on August 4, 2026, point to an overnight low near 71°F under persistent southerly flow, high dew points, and limited radiational cooling from partly cloudy skies and light winds. This aligns with the market's overwhelming 91.5% implied probability for the 70-71°F bin and sits within typical August climatology for Central Park observations. Warmer-than-average monthly outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center reinforce the baseline but do not alter the short-term pattern. The only realistic challenges involve a late forecast shift toward clearer skies or stronger northerly advection that could drop readings into the upper 60s, though current guidance shows low odds of such a change before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,747วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance for New York City on August 4, 2026, point to an overnight low near 71°F under persistent southerly flow, high dew points, and limited radiational cooling from partly cloudy skies and light winds. This aligns with the market's overwhelming 91.5% implied probability for the 70-71°F bin and sits within typical August climatology for Central Park observations. Warmer-than-average monthly outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center reinforce the baseline but do not alter the short-term pattern. The only realistic challenges involve a late forecast shift toward clearer skies or stronger northerly advection that could drop readings into the upper 60s, though current guidance shows low odds of such a change before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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