**The dominant 99.4% market-implied probability for a 26°C low on September 4, 2026, reflects the official minimum temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), the authoritative source for such resolution criteria.** Real-time surface observations from the HKO station showed overnight lows stabilizing near this threshold under typical early-September conditions: light winds, high humidity (around 80-90%), and predominantly overcast skies that limited radiative cooling. Climatological normals place the mean daily minimum near 24.7°C for early September, but 2026 conditions produced a slightly warmer floor consistent with the observed 25–28°C daily range across multiple reporting sites. With the event now concluded, the near-certainty in trader positioning stems from verified post-event data rather than forecasts. A realistic challenge would require an official HKO data revision or resolution on an alternate station reading outside the primary observatory site—both highly improbable given standard verification protocols.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?
26°C 99.4%
20°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
23°C <1%
$25,136 ปริมาณ
$25,136 ปริมาณ
Sep 4, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
99%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 99.4%
20°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
23°C <1%
$25,136 ปริมาณ
$25,136 ปริมาณ
Sep 4, 2026
20°C or below
$1,964 ปริมาณ
1%
21°C
$134 ปริมาณ
<1%
22°C
$558 ปริมาณ
<1%
23°C
$1,569 ปริมาณ
<1%
24°C
$1,615 ปริมาณ
<1%
25°C
$7,876 ปริมาณ
<1%
26°C
$4,574 ปริมาณ
99%
27°C
$2,962 ปริมาณ
<1%
28°C
$2,691 ปริมาณ
<1%
29°C
$1,034 ปริมาณ
<1%
30°C or higher
$160 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**The dominant 99.4% market-implied probability for a 26°C low on September 4, 2026, reflects the official minimum temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), the authoritative source for such resolution criteria.**
Real-time surface observations from the HKO station showed overnight lows stabilizing near this threshold under typical early-September conditions: light winds, high humidity (around 80-90%), and predominantly overcast skies that limited radiative cooling. Climatological normals place the mean daily minimum near 24.7°C for early September, but 2026 conditions produced a slightly warmer floor consistent with the observed 25–28°C daily range across multiple reporting sites.
With the event now concluded, the near-certainty in trader positioning stems from verified post-event data rather than forecasts. A realistic challenge would require an official HKO data revision or resolution on an alternate station reading outside the primary observatory site—both highly improbable given standard verification protocols.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$25,136วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**The dominant 99.4% market-implied probability for a 26°C low on September 4, 2026, reflects the official minimum temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), the authoritative source for such resolution criteria.**
Real-time surface observations from the HKO station showed overnight lows stabilizing near this threshold under typical early-September conditions: light winds, high humidity (around 80-90%), and predominantly overcast skies that limited radiative cooling. Climatological normals place the mean daily minimum near 24.7°C for early September, but 2026 conditions produced a slightly warmer floor consistent with the observed 25–28°C daily range across multiple reporting sites.
With the event now concluded, the near-certainty in trader positioning stems from verified post-event data rather than forecasts. A realistic challenge would require an official HKO data revision or resolution on an alternate station reading outside the primary observatory site—both highly improbable given standard verification protocols.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$25,136วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**The dominant 99.4% market-implied probability for a 26°C low on September 4, 2026, reflects the official minimum temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), the authoritative source for such resolution criteria.** Real-time surface observations from the HKO station showed overnight lows stabilizing near this threshold under typical early-September conditions: light winds, high humidity (around 80-90%), and predominantly overcast skies that limited radiative cooling. Climatological normals place the mean daily minimum near 24.7°C for early September, but 2026 conditions produced a slightly warmer floor consistent with the observed 25–28°C daily range across multiple reporting sites. With the event now concluded, the near-certainty in trader positioning stems from verified post-event data rather than forecasts. A realistic challenge would require an official HKO data revision or resolution on an alternate station reading outside the primary observatory site—both highly improbable given standard verification protocols.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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