Lebanon’s parliamentary landscape remains highly fragmented ahead of the next vote, now scheduled for 2028 after a two-year extension driven by security concerns from ongoing border tensions and stalled Israel-Lebanon talks. No single party commands broad national support under the confessional proportional system, leaving outcomes dependent on alliances and regional strongholds. Amal Movement’s modest edge reflects its institutional role via Speaker Nabih Berri and Shia coordination with Hezbollah, yet both face pressure from state efforts under President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam to assert sovereignty and limit non-state arms. Christian parties such as Lebanese Forces and Kataeb draw from distinct voter bases but lack cross-sect reach, while independents and smaller groups highlight voter volatility. Recent municipal results showed shrinking margins for established blocs, underscoring how economic recovery, disarmament progress, or renewed sectarian mobilization could realign coalitions before the next contest.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกรัฐสภาเลบานอน
ผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกรัฐสภาเลบานอน
ขบวนการอามัล (อามัล) 2.2%
Lebanese Forces (LF) <1%
ขบวนการรักชาติอิสระ (FPM) <1%
พรรคก้าวหน้า (Taqaddom) <1%
$668,469 ปริมาณ
$668,469 ปริมาณ
ขบวนการอามัล (อามัล)
2%
Lebanese Forces (LF)
<1%
ขบวนการรักชาติอิสระ (FPM)
<1%
พรรคก้าวหน้า (Taqaddom)
<1%
ลานา – พรรคประชาธิปไตยสังคม (ลานา)
<1%
พันธมิตรวะตะนี (วะตะนี)
<1%
เฮซบอลเลาะห์ (Hezb)
<1%
พรรคกาตาเอบ (Kataeb)
<1%
ขบวนการมาราดา (MM)
<1%
กลุ่มอิสลาม (IG)
<1%
พรรคอาหรับสังคมนิยมบาธในเลบานอน (บาธ)
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
พรรคสนทนาแห่งชาติ (NDP)
<1%
พรรคสังคมนิยมก้าวหน้า (PSP)
<1%
ขบวนการอิสรภาพ (IM)
<1%
สมาคมโครงการอิสลามเพื่อการกุศล (ICPA)
<1%
พรรคชาตินิยมเสรี (NLP)
<1%
พรรคมะดะ (มะดะ)
<1%
ขบวนการศักดิ์ศรี (DM)
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)
<1%
Union Party (UP)
<1%
Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)
<1%
ขบวนการอามัล (อามัล) 2.2%
Lebanese Forces (LF) <1%
ขบวนการรักชาติอิสระ (FPM) <1%
พรรคก้าวหน้า (Taqaddom) <1%
$668,469 ปริมาณ
$668,469 ปริมาณ
ขบวนการอามัล (อามัล)
2%
Lebanese Forces (LF)
<1%
ขบวนการรักชาติอิสระ (FPM)
<1%
พรรคก้าวหน้า (Taqaddom)
<1%
ลานา – พรรคประชาธิปไตยสังคม (ลานา)
<1%
พันธมิตรวะตะนี (วะตะนี)
<1%
เฮซบอลเลาะห์ (Hezb)
<1%
พรรคกาตาเอบ (Kataeb)
<1%
ขบวนการมาราดา (MM)
<1%
กลุ่มอิสลาม (IG)
<1%
พรรคอาหรับสังคมนิยมบาธในเลบานอน (บาธ)
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
พรรคสนทนาแห่งชาติ (NDP)
<1%
พรรคสังคมนิยมก้าวหน้า (PSP)
<1%
ขบวนการอิสรภาพ (IM)
<1%
สมาคมโครงการอิสลามเพื่อการกุศล (ICPA)
<1%
พรรคชาตินิยมเสรี (NLP)
<1%
พรรคมะดะ (มะดะ)
<1%
ขบวนการศักดิ์ศรี (DM)
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)
<1%
Union Party (UP)
<1%
Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lebanon’s parliamentary landscape remains highly fragmented ahead of the next vote, now scheduled for 2028 after a two-year extension driven by security concerns from ongoing border tensions and stalled Israel-Lebanon talks. No single party commands broad national support under the confessional proportional system, leaving outcomes dependent on alliances and regional strongholds. Amal Movement’s modest edge reflects its institutional role via Speaker Nabih Berri and Shia coordination with Hezbollah, yet both face pressure from state efforts under President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam to assert sovereignty and limit non-state arms. Christian parties such as Lebanese Forces and Kataeb draw from distinct voter bases but lack cross-sect reach, while independents and smaller groups highlight voter volatility. Recent municipal results showed shrinking margins for established blocs, underscoring how economic recovery, disarmament progress, or renewed sectarian mobilization could realign coalitions before the next contest.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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