National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for Houston on August 3 point to peak temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s under persistent high pressure and typical late-summer humidity, with only modest model spread around 96–99 °F. Recent easing of an early-week heat ridge, combined with scattered afternoon thunderstorm chances that could limit insolation, supports the market’s heavy weighting toward the 96–97 °F bin at 51.5 % and the 98–99 °F range at 29 %. Official guidance continues to highlight heat-index values near 105–110 °F, yet increasing Gulf moisture and subtle steering-flow changes introduce enough forecast uncertainty to keep lower bins like 94–95 °F at 12.5 % viable if convection develops earlier than expected.