Tropical Storm Dolly rapidly degenerated into an open tropical wave within a day of formation due to strong southwesterly wind shear and dry mid-level air, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center satellite and buoy data showing loss of closed circulation and sustained winds dropping below tropical-storm force. These hostile upper-level conditions, combined with fast west-northwestward motion at 20-25 mph, prevented any intensification and align with broader seasonal influences like a strengthening El Niño that suppresses Atlantic activity. Official forecasts indicate little redevelopment potential over the next several days as remnants approach the Caribbean and Florida, with only marginal odds farther out. A realistic shift would require unexpected relaxation of shear and sustained organization over warm waters near the Bahamas or Gulf, though current model consensus shows this as unlikely before dissipation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоУсилится ли тропический шторм «Долли» до урагана?
Усилится ли тропический шторм «Долли» до урагана?
Да
5% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 сент. 2026 г.
Да
5% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Dolly rapidly degenerated into an open tropical wave within a day of formation due to strong southwesterly wind shear and dry mid-level air, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center satellite and buoy data showing loss of closed circulation and sustained winds dropping below tropical-storm force. These hostile upper-level conditions, combined with fast west-northwestward motion at 20-25 mph, prevented any intensification and align with broader seasonal influences like a strengthening El Niño that suppresses Atlantic activity. Official forecasts indicate little redevelopment potential over the next several days as remnants approach the Caribbean and Florida, with only marginal odds farther out. A realistic shift would require unexpected relaxation of shear and sustained organization over warm waters near the Bahamas or Gulf, though current model consensus shows this as unlikely before dissipation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Объем
$3,695Дата окончания
4 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Dolly rapidly degenerated into an open tropical wave within a day of formation due to strong southwesterly wind shear and dry mid-level air, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center satellite and buoy data showing loss of closed circulation and sustained winds dropping below tropical-storm force. These hostile upper-level conditions, combined with fast west-northwestward motion at 20-25 mph, prevented any intensification and align with broader seasonal influences like a strengthening El Niño that suppresses Atlantic activity. Official forecasts indicate little redevelopment potential over the next several days as remnants approach the Caribbean and Florida, with only marginal odds farther out. A realistic shift would require unexpected relaxation of shear and sustained organization over warm waters near the Bahamas or Gulf, though current model consensus shows this as unlikely before dissipation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$3,695Дата окончания
4 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Dolly rapidly degenerated into an open tropical wave within a day of formation due to strong southwesterly wind shear and dry mid-level air, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center satellite and buoy data showing loss of closed circulation and sustained winds dropping below tropical-storm force. These hostile upper-level conditions, combined with fast west-northwestward motion at 20-25 mph, prevented any intensification and align with broader seasonal influences like a strengthening El Niño that suppresses Atlantic activity. Official forecasts indicate little redevelopment potential over the next several days as remnants approach the Caribbean and Florida, with only marginal odds farther out. A realistic shift would require unexpected relaxation of shear and sustained organization over warm waters near the Bahamas or Gulf, though current model consensus shows this as unlikely before dissipation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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