Recent polling shows the Social Democrats leading at around 31-32%, followed by the Sweden Democrats near 20% and the Moderates at 16-17%, leaving a tight cluster of smaller parties—including the Left, Centre, Greens, and Christian Democrats—each polling between roughly 6% and 8% in the run-up to the September 13 vote. This narrow spread among mid-tier parties creates high uncertainty over exact rankings from fourth place onward, sustaining balanced trader probabilities for any one finishing sixth. Late shifts in turnout, voter migration among opposition or governing blocs, or campaign events could reorder these contenders and alter the outcome.