New Mexico’s 1st congressional district, anchored in the Albuquerque metro area, maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt reflected in its Solid D Cook Political Report rating and D+7 or stronger partisan voting index. Incumbent Melanie Stansbury secured the Democratic nomination unopposed in the June 2026 primary after winning 56.4 percent in 2024, while Republican nominee Ndidiamaka Okpareke advanced without primary opposition. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because the seat’s structural advantages, combined with Stansbury’s incumbency and fundraising edge, have produced consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. A realistic shift in odds would require a major scandal, health event, or unusually adverse national environment capable of overcoming the district’s baseline partisan composition before November 3, 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNM-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NM-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$33,654 Объем
$33,654 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
7%
$33,654 Объем
$33,654 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$17,752 Объем
94%
Республиканская партия
$15,902 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Mexico’s 1st congressional district, anchored in the Albuquerque metro area, maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt reflected in its Solid D Cook Political Report rating and D+7 or stronger partisan voting index. Incumbent Melanie Stansbury secured the Democratic nomination unopposed in the June 2026 primary after winning 56.4 percent in 2024, while Republican nominee Ndidiamaka Okpareke advanced without primary opposition. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because the seat’s structural advantages, combined with Stansbury’s incumbency and fundraising edge, have produced consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. A realistic shift in odds would require a major scandal, health event, or unusually adverse national environment capable of overcoming the district’s baseline partisan composition before November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Объем
$33,654Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Mexico’s 1st congressional district, anchored in the Albuquerque metro area, maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt reflected in its Solid D Cook Political Report rating and D+7 or stronger partisan voting index. Incumbent Melanie Stansbury secured the Democratic nomination unopposed in the June 2026 primary after winning 56.4 percent in 2024, while Republican nominee Ndidiamaka Okpareke advanced without primary opposition. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because the seat’s structural advantages, combined with Stansbury’s incumbency and fundraising edge, have produced consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. A realistic shift in odds would require a major scandal, health event, or unusually adverse national environment capable of overcoming the district’s baseline partisan composition before November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$33,654Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New Mexico’s 1st congressional district, anchored in the Albuquerque metro area, maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt reflected in its Solid D Cook Political Report rating and D+7 or stronger partisan voting index. Incumbent Melanie Stansbury secured the Democratic nomination unopposed in the June 2026 primary after winning 56.4 percent in 2024, while Republican nominee Ndidiamaka Okpareke advanced without primary opposition. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because the seat’s structural advantages, combined with Stansbury’s incumbency and fundraising edge, have produced consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. A realistic shift in odds would require a major scandal, health event, or unusually adverse national environment capable of overcoming the district’s baseline partisan composition before November 3, 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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