Strong consensus forecasts from institutions including the CBO, Deloitte, and Vanguard project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.3% for 2026, supported by resilient Q1 and Q2 2026 readings of 2.1% and 1.5% annualized, respectively, alongside a shift toward business investment and AI-driven productivity gains. Recent policy tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and steady consumer spending have outweighed headwinds such as tariffs and tighter immigration, keeping expansion above potential output trends. With market-implied odds at 96% against negative annual growth, trader sentiment reflects these data releases and baseline outlooks rather than recession signals. Tail risks that could still flip the outcome include an abrupt escalation in trade conflicts, a sharp financial market correction, or unexpected fiscal tightening that pushes growth below zero for the full year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОтрицательный рост ВВП в 2026 году?
Отрицательный рост ВВП в 2026 году?
Да
4% вероятность
$32,234 Объем
$32,234 Объем
29 янв. 2027 г.
Да
4% вероятность
$32,234 Объем
$32,234 Объем
29 янв. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus forecasts from institutions including the CBO, Deloitte, and Vanguard project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.3% for 2026, supported by resilient Q1 and Q2 2026 readings of 2.1% and 1.5% annualized, respectively, alongside a shift toward business investment and AI-driven productivity gains. Recent policy tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and steady consumer spending have outweighed headwinds such as tariffs and tighter immigration, keeping expansion above potential output trends. With market-implied odds at 96% against negative annual growth, trader sentiment reflects these data releases and baseline outlooks rather than recession signals. Tail risks that could still flip the outcome include an abrupt escalation in trade conflicts, a sharp financial market correction, or unexpected fiscal tightening that pushes growth below zero for the full year.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Объем
$32,234Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus forecasts from institutions including the CBO, Deloitte, and Vanguard project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.3% for 2026, supported by resilient Q1 and Q2 2026 readings of 2.1% and 1.5% annualized, respectively, alongside a shift toward business investment and AI-driven productivity gains. Recent policy tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and steady consumer spending have outweighed headwinds such as tariffs and tighter immigration, keeping expansion above potential output trends. With market-implied odds at 96% against negative annual growth, trader sentiment reflects these data releases and baseline outlooks rather than recession signals. Tail risks that could still flip the outcome include an abrupt escalation in trade conflicts, a sharp financial market correction, or unexpected fiscal tightening that pushes growth below zero for the full year.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Объем
$32,234Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong consensus forecasts from institutions including the CBO, Deloitte, and Vanguard project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.3% for 2026, supported by resilient Q1 and Q2 2026 readings of 2.1% and 1.5% annualized, respectively, alongside a shift toward business investment and AI-driven productivity gains. Recent policy tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and steady consumer spending have outweighed headwinds such as tariffs and tighter immigration, keeping expansion above potential output trends. With market-implied odds at 96% against negative annual growth, trader sentiment reflects these data releases and baseline outlooks rather than recession signals. Tail risks that could still flip the outcome include an abrupt escalation in trade conflicts, a sharp financial market correction, or unexpected fiscal tightening that pushes growth below zero for the full year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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