Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showed 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth (1.1% annualized), below expectations amid flat private consumption and declining capital expenditure, with net exports providing the main offset. Persistent Middle East-related energy price pressures continue to weigh on real household income and corporate margins, supporting trader consensus around subdued or mildly negative Q3 annualized readings. Low unemployment near 2.5%, inflation at 1.7%, and Bank of Japan policy normalization add counterbalancing elements, while yen volatility and potential fiscal measures create swing factors. The tightly clustered probabilities across contraction to modest expansion ranges reflect uncertainty over whether domestic demand can stabilize before external headwinds intensify further into September.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено-1.6%– -0.8% 48%
0.8%–1.6% 44%
0.0%–0.8% 40%
-2.4%– -1.6% 29%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
16 нояб. 2026 г.
<-2.4%
24%
-2.4%– -1.6%
29%
-1.6%– -0.8%
48%
-0.8%–0.0%
28%
0.0%–0.8%
40%
0.8%–1.6%
44%
1.6%–2.4%
25%
2.4%–3.2%
11%
3.2%–4.0%
8%
4.0%+
9%
-1.6%– -0.8% 48%
0.8%–1.6% 44%
0.0%–0.8% 40%
-2.4%– -1.6% 29%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
16 нояб. 2026 г.
<-2.4%
$0 Объем
24%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$0 Объем
29%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$0 Объем
48%
-0.8%–0.0%
$0 Объем
28%
0.0%–0.8%
$0 Объем
40%
0.8%–1.6%
$0 Объем
44%
1.6%–2.4%
$0 Объем
25%
2.4%–3.2%
$0 Объем
11%
3.2%–4.0%
$0 Объем
8%
4.0%+
$0 Объем
9%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP data showed 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth (1.1% annualized), below expectations amid flat private consumption and declining capital expenditure, with net exports providing the main offset. Persistent Middle East-related energy price pressures continue to weigh on real household income and corporate margins, supporting trader consensus around subdued or mildly negative Q3 annualized readings. Low unemployment near 2.5%, inflation at 1.7%, and Bank of Japan policy normalization add counterbalancing elements, while yen volatility and potential fiscal measures create swing factors. The tightly clustered probabilities across contraction to modest expansion ranges reflect uncertainty over whether domestic demand can stabilize before external headwinds intensify further into September.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Открытие рынка: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
16 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP data showed 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth (1.1% annualized), below expectations amid flat private consumption and declining capital expenditure, with net exports providing the main offset. Persistent Middle East-related energy price pressures continue to weigh on real household income and corporate margins, supporting trader consensus around subdued or mildly negative Q3 annualized readings. Low unemployment near 2.5%, inflation at 1.7%, and Bank of Japan policy normalization add counterbalancing elements, while yen volatility and potential fiscal measures create swing factors. The tightly clustered probabilities across contraction to modest expansion ranges reflect uncertainty over whether domestic demand can stabilize before external headwinds intensify further into September.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Объем
$0Дата окончания
16 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showed 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth (1.1% annualized), below expectations amid flat private consumption and declining capital expenditure, with net exports providing the main offset. Persistent Middle East-related energy price pressures continue to weigh on real household income and corporate margins, supporting trader consensus around subdued or mildly negative Q3 annualized readings. Low unemployment near 2.5%, inflation at 1.7%, and Bank of Japan policy normalization add counterbalancing elements, while yen volatility and potential fiscal measures create swing factors. The tightly clustered probabilities across contraction to modest expansion ranges reflect uncertainty over whether domestic demand can stabilize before external headwinds intensify further into September.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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