Recent polls from multiple institutes, including INSA, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and Pollytix conducted in early to mid-September 2026, place the CDU at 6–7 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, well below its 13.3 percent result in the 2021 Landtag election. This positioning reflects sustained weakness for the federal CDU under Chancellor Friedrich Merz in eastern states, compounded by strong AfD and SPD support in the current campaign. The consistent single-digit readings across surveys have anchored trader consensus on a sub-8 percent outcome, with limited movement in the final pre-election period and no evidence of a late rebound sufficient to alter the trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено<8% 81%
8-11% 13%
11-14% 3.0%
14%+ <1%
$65,372 Объем
$65,372 Объем
<8%
81%
8-11%
13%
11-14%
3%
14%+
1%
<8% 81%
8-11% 13%
11-14% 3.0%
14%+ <1%
$65,372 Объем
$65,372 Объем
<8%
81%
8-11%
13%
11-14%
3%
14%+
1%
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 20, 2026, 2:34 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from multiple institutes, including INSA, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and Pollytix conducted in early to mid-September 2026, place the CDU at 6–7 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, well below its 13.3 percent result in the 2021 Landtag election. This positioning reflects sustained weakness for the federal CDU under Chancellor Friedrich Merz in eastern states, compounded by strong AfD and SPD support in the current campaign. The consistent single-digit readings across surveys have anchored trader consensus on a sub-8 percent outcome, with limited movement in the final pre-election period and no evidence of a late rebound sufficient to alter the trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы