Recent polling averages place the AfD at 36-38 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20 Landtagswahl, more than double its 2021 result, while the SPD under Minister President Manuela Schwesig has narrowed the gap to two points in the latest INSA survey at 35 percent. This tightening race, driven by Schwesig’s personal appeal and campaign momentum against AfD challenger Leif-Erik Holm, supports trader pricing that assigns the highest probability to an AfD share in the mid-to-high 30s. The CDU’s historic low near 7 percent and limited coalition options for other parties further concentrate attention on the AfD-SPD contest, with modest late shifts capable of keeping the outcome below or above the 38 percent threshold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено38%+ 49%
35-38% 35%
32-35% 15%
<32% 3.1%
$31,484 Объем
$31,484 Объем
20 сент. 2026 г.
<32%
3%
32-35%
15%
35-38%
35%
38%+
47%
38%+ 49%
35-38% 35%
32-35% 15%
<32% 3.1%
$31,484 Объем
$31,484 Объем
20 сент. 2026 г.
<32%
$3,619 Объем
3%
32-35%
$6,505 Объем
15%
35-38%
$5,190 Объем
35%
38%+
$16,169 Объем
47%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling averages place the AfD at 36-38 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20 Landtagswahl, more than double its 2021 result, while the SPD under Minister President Manuela Schwesig has narrowed the gap to two points in the latest INSA survey at 35 percent. This tightening race, driven by Schwesig’s personal appeal and campaign momentum against AfD challenger Leif-Erik Holm, supports trader pricing that assigns the highest probability to an AfD share in the mid-to-high 30s. The CDU’s historic low near 7 percent and limited coalition options for other parties further concentrate attention on the AfD-SPD contest, with modest late shifts capable of keeping the outcome below or above the 38 percent threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Объем
$31,484Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling averages place the AfD at 36-38 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20 Landtagswahl, more than double its 2021 result, while the SPD under Minister President Manuela Schwesig has narrowed the gap to two points in the latest INSA survey at 35 percent. This tightening race, driven by Schwesig’s personal appeal and campaign momentum against AfD challenger Leif-Erik Holm, supports trader pricing that assigns the highest probability to an AfD share in the mid-to-high 30s. The CDU’s historic low near 7 percent and limited coalition options for other parties further concentrate attention on the AfD-SPD contest, with modest late shifts capable of keeping the outcome below or above the 38 percent threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Объем
$31,484Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place the AfD at 36-38 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20 Landtagswahl, more than double its 2021 result, while the SPD under Minister President Manuela Schwesig has narrowed the gap to two points in the latest INSA survey at 35 percent. This tightening race, driven by Schwesig’s personal appeal and campaign momentum against AfD challenger Leif-Erik Holm, supports trader pricing that assigns the highest probability to an AfD share in the mid-to-high 30s. The CDU’s historic low near 7 percent and limited coalition options for other parties further concentrate attention on the AfD-SPD contest, with modest late shifts capable of keeping the outcome below or above the 38 percent threshold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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