**Maduro faces U.S. federal charges of narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons offenses stemming from a January 2026 military raid that captured him and his wife in Caracas and transferred them to a Brooklyn detention center.** The case, with a trial date set for June 2027, carries potential life sentences, yet pretrial motions—including a September 2026 filing seeking dismissal on head-of-state immunity grounds—create substantial uncertainty over whether the prosecution will reach a jury or result in conviction. Traders appear to weigh the legal complexities of prosecuting a former foreign leader, challenges to the capture's legality, defense arguments over counsel funding, and possible negotiated outcomes or case dismissals against the strength of the indictment evidence. These factors position no prison time as the plurality outcome while longer sentences reflect scenarios of full conviction on the most serious counts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез тюремного срока 45%
60+ 26%
20–40 14.4%
40–60 9.8%
$714,915 Объем
$714,915 Объем
30 дек. 2027 г.
Без тюремного срока
45%
<20
5%
20–40
14%
40–60
10%
60+
26%
Без тюремного срока 45%
60+ 26%
20–40 14.4%
40–60 9.8%
$714,915 Объем
$714,915 Объем
30 дек. 2027 г.
Без тюремного срока
$439,021 Объем
45%
<20
$107,022 Объем
5%
20–40
$56,744 Объем
14%
40–60
$24,656 Объем
10%
60+
$87,473 Объем
26%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Maduro faces U.S. federal charges of narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons offenses stemming from a January 2026 military raid that captured him and his wife in Caracas and transferred them to a Brooklyn detention center.** The case, with a trial date set for June 2027, carries potential life sentences, yet pretrial motions—including a September 2026 filing seeking dismissal on head-of-state immunity grounds—create substantial uncertainty over whether the prosecution will reach a jury or result in conviction. Traders appear to weigh the legal complexities of prosecuting a former foreign leader, challenges to the capture's legality, defense arguments over counsel funding, and possible negotiated outcomes or case dismissals against the strength of the indictment evidence. These factors position no prison time as the plurality outcome while longer sentences reflect scenarios of full conviction on the most serious counts.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Объем
$714,915Дата окончания
31 дек. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Maduro faces U.S. federal charges of narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons offenses stemming from a January 2026 military raid that captured him and his wife in Caracas and transferred them to a Brooklyn detention center.** The case, with a trial date set for June 2027, carries potential life sentences, yet pretrial motions—including a September 2026 filing seeking dismissal on head-of-state immunity grounds—create substantial uncertainty over whether the prosecution will reach a jury or result in conviction. Traders appear to weigh the legal complexities of prosecuting a former foreign leader, challenges to the capture's legality, defense arguments over counsel funding, and possible negotiated outcomes or case dismissals against the strength of the indictment evidence. These factors position no prison time as the plurality outcome while longer sentences reflect scenarios of full conviction on the most serious counts.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$714,915Дата окончания
31 дек. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...**Maduro faces U.S. federal charges of narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons offenses stemming from a January 2026 military raid that captured him and his wife in Caracas and transferred them to a Brooklyn detention center.** The case, with a trial date set for June 2027, carries potential life sentences, yet pretrial motions—including a September 2026 filing seeking dismissal on head-of-state immunity grounds—create substantial uncertainty over whether the prosecution will reach a jury or result in conviction. Traders appear to weigh the legal complexities of prosecuting a former foreign leader, challenges to the capture's legality, defense arguments over counsel funding, and possible negotiated outcomes or case dismissals against the strength of the indictment evidence. These factors position no prison time as the plurality outcome while longer sentences reflect scenarios of full conviction on the most serious counts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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