Trader consensus has locked onto 25°C as the lowest temperature in Busan on August 23 because official Korea Meteorological Administration observations and short-range model runs show the overnight minimum stabilizing at that level after 3–6 a.m. local time, with hourly readings holding near 24–25°C before daytime heating. This aligns with typical late-August climatology for the region, where marine influence and residual heat from a persistent warm air mass prevent deeper nocturnal cooling. The market-implied odds reflect high-confidence verification data rather than forecast uncertainty. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted late-night drop below 24°C driven by stronger onshore flow or model error in boundary-layer mixing, though current observational trends make such a revision unlikely before resolution.