**Official forecasts from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and consistent numerical weather models underpin the near-certain 33°C outcome.** Clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and strong daytime heating under a stable high-pressure regime are driving maximum temperatures in central Madrid to 32–33°C, with surrounding stations such as Getafe and Aranjuez reaching 33°C. These conditions match the climatological expectation for late August (long-term average high ~30°C) while remaining well below heat-wave thresholds. Real-time observations on 30 August confirm the build-up to these values, with afternoon readings aligning closely with model consensus and showing negligible precipitation risk or cloud interference. The overwhelming market-implied probability (99.7% on 33°C) reflects traders’ assessment that only an improbable late-day shift—such as rapid cloud development or a sharp change in boundary-layer mixing—could alter the daily maximum enough to move resolution outside the narrow 33°C bin. Given the stability of current steering patterns and the advanced stage of the diurnal cycle, such deviations remain highly unlikely.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Мадриде 30 августа?
Самая высокая температура в Мадриде 30 августа?
33°C 99.6%
34°C <1%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
$28,277 Объем
$28,277 Объем
30 авг. 2026 г.
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
100%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 99.6%
34°C <1%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
$28,277 Объем
$28,277 Объем
30 авг. 2026 г.
28°C or below
$1,363 Объем
<1%
29°C
$292 Объем
<1%
30°C
$500 Объем
<1%
31°C
$1,079 Объем
<1%
32°C
$7,400 Объем
<1%
33°C
$6,924 Объем
100%
34°C
$7,158 Объем
1%
35°C
$1,815 Объем
<1%
36°C
$494 Объем
<1%
37°C
$1,062 Объем
<1%
38°C or higher
$191 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and consistent numerical weather models underpin the near-certain 33°C outcome.** Clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and strong daytime heating under a stable high-pressure regime are driving maximum temperatures in central Madrid to 32–33°C, with surrounding stations such as Getafe and Aranjuez reaching 33°C. These conditions match the climatological expectation for late August (long-term average high ~30°C) while remaining well below heat-wave thresholds.
Real-time observations on 30 August confirm the build-up to these values, with afternoon readings aligning closely with model consensus and showing negligible precipitation risk or cloud interference. The overwhelming market-implied probability (99.7% on 33°C) reflects traders’ assessment that only an improbable late-day shift—such as rapid cloud development or a sharp change in boundary-layer mixing—could alter the daily maximum enough to move resolution outside the narrow 33°C bin. Given the stability of current steering patterns and the advanced stage of the diurnal cycle, such deviations remain highly unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Объем
$28,277Дата окончания
30 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and consistent numerical weather models underpin the near-certain 33°C outcome.** Clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and strong daytime heating under a stable high-pressure regime are driving maximum temperatures in central Madrid to 32–33°C, with surrounding stations such as Getafe and Aranjuez reaching 33°C. These conditions match the climatological expectation for late August (long-term average high ~30°C) while remaining well below heat-wave thresholds.
Real-time observations on 30 August confirm the build-up to these values, with afternoon readings aligning closely with model consensus and showing negligible precipitation risk or cloud interference. The overwhelming market-implied probability (99.7% on 33°C) reflects traders’ assessment that only an improbable late-day shift—such as rapid cloud development or a sharp change in boundary-layer mixing—could alter the daily maximum enough to move resolution outside the narrow 33°C bin. Given the stability of current steering patterns and the advanced stage of the diurnal cycle, such deviations remain highly unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$28,277Дата окончания
30 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and consistent numerical weather models underpin the near-certain 33°C outcome.** Clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and strong daytime heating under a stable high-pressure regime are driving maximum temperatures in central Madrid to 32–33°C, with surrounding stations such as Getafe and Aranjuez reaching 33°C. These conditions match the climatological expectation for late August (long-term average high ~30°C) while remaining well below heat-wave thresholds. Real-time observations on 30 August confirm the build-up to these values, with afternoon readings aligning closely with model consensus and showing negligible precipitation risk or cloud interference. The overwhelming market-implied probability (99.7% on 33°C) reflects traders’ assessment that only an improbable late-day shift—such as rapid cloud development or a sharp change in boundary-layer mixing—could alter the daily maximum enough to move resolution outside the narrow 33°C bin. Given the stability of current steering patterns and the advanced stage of the diurnal cycle, such deviations remain highly unlikely.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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